MLB Player Props & Bets: Mets vs. Phillies (Thursday)
After essentially just a one-day layoff, Major League Baseball is already back in action on Thursday. We have a standalone game in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Phillies (54-43) will host the Mets (40-57). Christian Scott gets the nod for New York, while Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola. First pitch is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. If you're looking to get in on the action Thursday night, you've come to the right place. Below, I break down my top two MLB player props for this divisional clash.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aaron Nola Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-159)
I'm looking to fade Aaron Nola. The 33-year-old starter appears to be washed, as he only has one sub-4.00 ERA season across his last four campaigns. In 2026, Nola has made 19 starts (97 innings), posting a 5.75 ERA (60th) and a 1.43 WHIP (59th). His 102 strikeouts are the 34th-most in the Majors.
With that said, Nola has struggled to hit the six-strikeout mark as of late. Across his last 13 outings, the right-hander is 9-4 to the under against a line of 5.5 strikeouts. He'll take on a Mets squad that has been putting the bat on the ball, registering the third-best strikeout rate (18.7%) over the last seven days.
In the head-to-head category, a vapid 38 of New York's 152 at-bats against Nola have ended in punchouts (25%). I'll take the under on 5.5 strikeouts for Nola.
Christian Scott Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-113)
This is an interesting spot for the Phillies, as they resume play after just hosting the All-Star festivities earlier in the week. Philadelphia players didn't fare well in Tuesday's Midsummer Classic, with their three participants going a combined 0-for-5 (.000) at the dish. Prior to the break, Philadelphia ranked 25th in wOBA (.282) and 28th in ISO (.099) in the prior seven games.
I think this could be a good time to bet against Philadelphia. I'll take Christian Scott (3.17 ERA) to allow two or fewer earned runs in Thursday's second-half opener. He just faced the Phillies on June 27th, limiting them to two earned runs over 4.1 innings.
Philadelphia is just 3-for-16 (.188) against the right-hander. Add in that Scott is fresh off of a five-inning scoreless effort against the Royals last time out, and I think this is a great buy-in spot on the New York hurler.