MLB Player Props & Bets: Tuesday (4/28)
With a full slate of games on the schedule, I have my eye on three player prop bets, two of which provide incredible value. First, I highlight why facing the Pittsburgh Pirates may not mean automatic success for Kyle Leahy. Then, I explain why Chase Burns is in for a fantastic game against the Colorado Rockies. Finally, I dive into Ben Williamson's matchup against Tanner Bibee and the Cleveland Guardians.
Here are the best MLB player prop bets for April 28.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
This Season: 5-7-0 (-1.11 units) | Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Leahy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+128)
The Pirates have been one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the MLB this season, recording 278 in their first 29 games. The only team that has struck out more is the Los Angele Angels. Yet, despite the Pirates' offensive struggles, I'm taking Leahy to record fewer than 3.5 strikeouts tonight.
This season, Leahy has pitched 24.0 innings, but he's only struck out 15 batters. While he has a six-strikeout performance against the Houston Astros, he hasn't struck out more than four batters in any of his four other starts. In fact, in three of his five starts this season, he's struck out two or fewer batters. Additionally, he has yet to pitch more than 5.0 innings in a game, so he'll need to rack up a lot of strikeouts quickly. Unfortunately for him, he's only averaging 0.625 strikeouts per inning.
Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+142)
Buns has made five starts, and he's struck out at least seven batters in three of those appearances. Twice he's reached at least eight strikeouts, and he has 16 strikeouts in his last two starts combined.
Burns is averaging more than one strikeout per inning, and he's pitched at least 5.0 innings in each of his starts. While he hasn't pitched more than 6.0 innings this season, this is such a good matchup that I expect him to surpass this total in 6.0 innings today easily.
The Rockies have the fourth-most strikeouts in the league. But more importantly, Burns has had immense success against them. Though the current Rockies' lineup only has 14 at-bats against Burns, they've struck out seven times against him. Don't be surprised if Burns reaches double figures.
Ben Williamson Over 0.5 Hits (-153)
After two picks with odds greater than +125, I'm taking a safer play for my third pick of the day. Williamson has hit safely in three of his last five games, and he has four hits in his last three games. Though he went 0-of-4 yesterday against the Guardians, he's still hitting a respectable .247 this season.
Tanner Bibee will get the start for the Guardians tonight, and so far, it hasn't been a great season for him. He's allowed at least four hits in each of his six starts, and he's given up 20 in his last three appearances. Though Williamson is 0-of-2 against Bibee in his career, until Bibee gets back to the type of pitcher he's been in the past, I'll take a hot hitter like Williamson to get the better of him.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.