MLB Player Props & Bets: Tuesday (7/21)
Tonight, Matthew Liberatore and Will Warren take the mound against the two most strikeout-prone teams in baseball. While such matchups don't always guarantee success, I explain below why I expect both pitchers to have solid starts. Then, I highlight why Yandy Diaz should be trusted against Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays. Here are the best MLB player props for Tuesday, July 21st.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matthew Liberatore 6+ Strikeouts (+113)
Inconsistency has plagued Matthew Liberatore this season. He's struck out at least six batters in two of his last three starts, but he's failed to strike out more than four in six of his last eight.
That said, against the most strikeout-prone team in baseball, and coming off a six-strikeout performance against the Braves, I'm backing Liberatore to have a solid start tonight.
Through 101 games, the Angels have struck out 958 times. That's an average of 9.48 strikeouts per game. One of the reasons why Liberatore has struggled so much of late is because he gives up a lot of runs and gets chased early.
Since June 6th, Liberatore has two starts with fewer than three earned runs allowed. Those are the two games where he struck out at least six batters.
The good news for Liberatore is that the Angels don't score a lot of runs, ranking just 18th in runs scored. And though Liberatore doesn't have much history against this lineup, he has recorded six strikeouts in 24 at-bats, while allowing just two earned runs.
Will Warren 6+ Strikeouts (-110)
Will Warren has struck out 96 batters in 98.1 innings, but he's struck out three or fewer batters in four of his last six starts. Yet, it's hard not to like him against the Pirates tonight.
The Pirates are the second-most strikeout-prone team in baseball. They just struck out 10 times against the Yankees last night, with Ryan Weathers recording five of those punchouts in just 4.2 innings.
While Warren has struggled at times this season, he's allowed two or fewer earned runs against four of his last five opponents. Therefore, despite pitching fewer than six innings in seven consecutive starts, I expect him to be on the mound long enough to reach a number he's hit nine times this season.
It's worth mentioning that in the limited chances Warren has had against this Pirates lineup, he's struggled. He's allowed nine earned runs and a batting average of .526 in just 19 plate appearances. But he's also struck out seven batters during that span, ringing up all six players he's faced.
Yandy Diaz 2+ Total Bases (+115)
Yandy Diaz enters tonight's game against the Blue Jays with the fourth-best batting average in baseball. While he's only hit safely in two of his last six games, he went 2-for-5 last night against the Blue Jays.
I like Diaz to build off that momentum against Kevin Gausman, a pitcher he has excelled against throughout his career - .389 with one home run and four RBI.
What helps Diaz is that the Rays' entire lineup hits Gausman well, with a combined .367 average in 109 at-bats. This means that Gausman is likely to be in pressure situations throughout the game.
The only real concern about this prop is that Diaz has just three extra-base hits in all of July. But 27% of Diaz's hits this season have been for extra bases. And he has 30 multi-hit games, so there are multiple ways for him to reach this threshold.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.