MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (10/7)
Wednesday will be the last day this season in which we see four Major League Baseball games. Four teams are on the brink of elimination, and desperation is in the air. We can use that to our advantage in the player prop market. Here are some of my favorite MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, October 7.
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MLB Player Props
(All bets are one unit, unless otherwise stated)
Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+102 at DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman found his power stroke once the postseason commenced. After hitting just one home run in the second half of the regular season, Freeman has already homered twice in the first three games of this series. He also had another home run taken away by Mauricio Dubon. I expect Freeman to stay hot against Tyler Mahle and the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday.
Freeman has hit Mahle very well in their careers. The former Brave is 8-for-19 with a double and a home run against Mahle. Freeman also has good numbers against most of Atlanta's relief corps should they decide to give Mahle a quicker hook in an elimination game. He is a combined 7-for-17 with three extra-base hits against Braves left-handed relievers.
While I think Freeman has a good chance to record two or more total bases, going the HRRBI route feels like the safer play. The Dodgers have no shortage of offensive firepower, so Freeman could very easily have an RBI single or score following a base hit of his own.
This prop is currently +102 over at DraftKings. FanDuel has it at -115, while Fanatics has it at -120. Those books are more in line with where I believe the price should be based on the data above. I would still play this up to -120 if and when DraftKings adjusts their pricing.
Tyler Mahle Under 13.5 Outs Recorded (-110 at Caesars)
Tyler Mahle has been outstanding since being acquired by Atlanta at the trade deadline. He made nine regular season starts for the Braves and recorded seven quality starts. He followed that up by allowing just one run across seven innings in the Wild Card Round against Philadelphia. And yet I cannot see Atlanta trusting him to go deep into this ballgame with their season on the line.
The impending free agent is starting for the Braves on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Atlanta will have all hands on deck for this game. That includes as many as four left-handed relievers they can mix and match. Los Angeles has yet to face a right-handed starting pitcher in this series. But if their regular season lineup configurations are any indication, they are likely to go with Shohei Ohtani in the leadoff spot and Freddie Freeman hitting third. I wouldn’t be shocked if Mahle makes it only twice through the ‘Dodgers’ order.
Of course, he could still exceed that number even if he faces only 18 hitters. But it would be a tough ask against a loaded Los Angeles lineup. So I am betting Mahle will record 13.5 outs or fewer in this game.
Samad Taylor Under 0.5 Hits/Total Bases (-110 at TheScoreBet)
My final MLB player prop for Wednesday is another Under. I am betting against Samad Taylor of the San Diego Padres recording a hit. This is another instance in which I believe a player may be removed early.
Robert Gasser is starting for the Milwaukee Brewers, which means Taylor should start for San Diego. Taylor only started on Tuesday night because Gavin Sheets was a late scratch. That was his first start against a right-handed pitcher in nearly two weeks. Even if Sheets remains unavailable, Dustin Harris is likely to replace Taylor once Milwaukee moves to a right-handed pitcher.
Gasser has not pitched in nearly two weeks himself, and there is no guarantee he goes deep into this ballgame. He faced 20 or fewer hitters in four of five September outings. Taylor could get only one or two plate appearances in this game.
And while Taylor has a solid batting average, Gasser does not allow many hits. The left-hander faced 105 hitters in September and only permitted 13 base hits. I am willing to take the chance that he can keep Taylor off the stat sheet in this game. Therefore, I am taking the Under on Samad Taylor's hits and total bases numbers in Wednesday's nightcap.