MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (4/15)
Last week was a positive showing, as I went 2-1 overall in my MLB player props. Let's keep those vibes going as we head towards the second half of the month. Here are my three favorite MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, April 15.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at DraftKings)
My first MLB player prop for Wednesday is a callback of sorts to one of last week's winners. I played Alec Burleson to go over his Hits+Runs+RBI prop and mentioned that I wouldn't mind playing the his Total Base prop if you were worried about the price of the HRRBI prop. Sure enough, Burleson had three hits and totaled seven HRRBI. So this time, I am just going to play his Total Base prop at plus-money.
The matchup may not be quite as good as it was last week against Miles Mikolas. However, Slade Cecconi is not exactly Paul Skenes, either. Cecconi has allowed an 11.5 percent barrel rate in his career, and opponents have a .213 ISO against him. Cecconi features a four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball against left-handed batters. So far this year, Burleson has an expected slugging percentage of .830 against four-seamers and 1.102 versus cutters. His .456 mark against curveballs is decent enough.
I also like Burleson here because both of Cleveland's lefty relievers pitched back-to-back days, and Wednesday's day game makes it unlikely he faces a lefty. Burleson has slugged .537 at home vs. righties since last season. I expect Burleson to improve upon that number in this matchup.
Luis Gil Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-155 at Fanatics and HardRockBet)
This line feels high for a couple of reasons. First, Luis Gil is making just his second Big League start of the season. He faced just 19 batters in his first start after pitching 4.2 innings in the Minors the previous week. I don't see the Yankees pushing Gil too far here, especially with innings-eater Max Fried scheduled to pitch Thursday.
Gil limits hits well, holding opponents to a .198 career average. Since returning from a high-grade lat strain last year, he’s less effective. However, he has still kept batting average allowed to a solid .222 number.
In addition, Gil has always been wild, which also limits the number of hits he allows. Gil has a career walk rate of 12.8 percent. On Wednesday, he faces a Los Angeles Angels team that enters play with an 11.5 percent collective walk rate versus right-handed pitching. The Angels are also hitting just .208 against righties, the third-lowest mark in the league. Just under 18 percent of their plate appearances versus right-handers have resulted in a hit. I think there are multiple paths for Gil to go under this number.
If you can't access Fanatics or HardRockBet, I would suggest pivoting to Gil's Under 4.5-strikeout line. The Angels strike out often, but since last year, Gil's K rate is 16 percent. That is considerably down from his pre-injury mark of 27 percent. DraftKings currently offers the best price at -107.
Chris Paddack Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-132 at DraftKings)
The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins in the rubber matchup of their three-game series on Wednesday night. Atlanta is heating up offensively. They have won five of seven games and are averaging seven runs per game in that stretch. I expect more of the same on Wednesday, which is why I am betting Miami starting pitcher Chris Paddack to go under his 15.5 Pitching Outs number.
Atlanta enters this matchup with a 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the young season. That is the third-highest mark in MLB. Paddack is essentially an average Major League pitcher at this stage in his career. Since returning to full-time work in 2024, his ERA is over 5.00, and he has not been able to consistently go deep into ballgames. He has exceeded this number in just 18-of-47 starts since the 2024 season.
Miami has not pushed any starter beyond ace Sandy Alcantara. The other four Marlins starters, including Paddack, have surpassed this total only three times in 13 starts. With an off day on Thursday and a fresh bullpen, there’s no reason to overwork Paddack. Even if he limits Atlanta's lineup, I don't see Paddack going more than five innings.