MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (4/29)
Three consecutive winning weeks on the MLB player prop bets front are good. Still, I hope to close out the month on an even higher note. I want to sweep the board by targeting several underperforming starting pitchers. Here are my three favorite MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, April 29.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-104)
For my first MLB player prop for Wednesday, I am betting on Jesus Sanchez of the Toronto Blue Jays to record at least two combined runs, hits, and RBI.
Let's start with Sanchez's recent form. He has eclipsed this number nine times in his last 15 starts versus right-handed starting pitchers. Sanchez has hit in the cleanup in all those games. Toronto's lineup should improve on Wednesday with George Springer expected to return. This season, Sanchez has gone over this number in six of eight games with Springer in the lineup.
Sanchez has a .314 expected batting average this year and only strikes out or draws a walk in 25 percent of his plate appearances. That is an ideal recipe for putting the ball in play, thereby increasing the chances of recording hits, runs, and RBI. On top of all that, Sanchez is facing Brayan Bello on Wednesday afternoon. Bello has been a disaster so far this year for the Boston Red Sox.
Bello carries a 9.00 ERA and an 8.28 expected ERA so far in 2026. His expected batting average (.314) and K+BB rate (24.3 percent) mirror those of Sanchez. Bello throws a sinker, cutter, or changeup over 80 percent of the time to left-handed hitters. Sanchez has posted a hard-hit rate of 62.5 percent or greater on all three pitches this year. This creates a great matchup for Jesus Sanchez, and I expect him to take full advantage.
Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125)
To be fair, my lone loss last week came when I bet against Tomoyuki Sogano. So I will give the man credit where it is due. However, I do not think he will beat me twice in a row. This time around, I am betting on Nathaniel Lowe of the Cincinnati Reds.
Lowe has seen regular playing time of late and has destroyed right-handed pitching. He enters Wednesday's game hitting .342 versus righties with a .737 slugging percentage. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, Lowe would lead the league in slugging and rank in the top-10 in average against right-handers. He has been even more prolific at home versus righties. Lowe is 8-for-18 with six extra-base hits in that split.
Sugano's surface numbers are deceptive. Despite a 3.43 ERA, his expected ERA is 6.18, and his expected batting average allowed is .284. He ranks low in chase, whiff, strikeout, and hard-hit rates, with a 15.5 percent barrel rate sitting in the sixth percentile.
Sugano owns a career walk rate of just 5.6 percent versus left-handed batters. Because of that, I like Lowe's chances to get pitches to hit, even if he only faces him twice. Colorado only has one left-handed pitcher in its bullpen. That setup should give Lowe at least three plate appearances against right-handers on Wednesday.
Lowe has surpassed this mark in six consecutive games, also clearing his total base line in five of those. If this prop's price reaches the -150 range, total bases may be preferable. However, at the current odds, this is the safer play. With Sugano pitching, expect plenty of base traffic and another strong outing from Lowe.
Luis Severino Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-134)
The final game on Wednesday's MLB slate features the Kansas City Royals facing the Athletics. Sutter Health Park has not been kind to Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino, and I expect him to struggle again on Wednesday.
In 17 starts in the Athletics' temporary home ballpark, Severino has posted a 6.15 ERA. He has allowed at least three earned runs in 11 of 17 starts. In 10 of those 17 starts, Severino surrendered at least four earned runs. Last season, he had another game in which he allowed five runs, but only one of them was earned. No matter how you slice it, Severino just does not pitch well in Sacramento.
Kansas City has produced average offensive numbers thus far this year versus right-handed pitchers. However, the team has recently begun improving in that area. Prior to Tuesday's contest, the Royals led all of baseball with a 165 wRC+ over the previous seven days. They also tagged three consecutive right-handed starters for at least four earned runs.
The Royals should have their regular lineup intact for this game, including Maikel Garcia and Carter Jensen. Wednesday's game will feature ideal weather and hitting conditions in a ballpark that trails only Coors Field in overall park factor for hitters. I am betting on Severino to be charged with at least three earned runs in this matchup.