MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (4/8)
There is not a whole lot I can say after starting the season with a 0-fer last week. Hopefully, that is the last such disaster class we see for quite a while. Today is a new day, and with it comes a clean slate. With that in mind, here are my three favorite MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, April 8.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated)
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases (-137 at DraftKings)
The Houston Astros were shut down by Kyle Freeland of all people on Tuesday night. However, I do not expect that to happen a second game in a row. Colorado is trotting out Michael Lorenzen to close out their three-game set with the Astros. Lorenzen has faced 45 hitters through two starts this season and recorded 22 outs. He has also struggled historically against right-handed hitters and in his matchups against Houston shortstop Jeremy Pena.
Pena is 4-for-9 lifetime against Lorenzen with a double and a home run. Since the beginning of last season, Pena has slugged a solid .487 versus right-handed pitching with a minuscule 5.9 percent walk rate. With Yordan Alvarez hitting behind him, Pena should get plenty of pitches to hit against Lorenzen on Monday.
Then there’s the Coors Field factor. Coors is considered the best-hitting park in baseball. Lorenzen has struggled there, with a career ERA in Colorado of 12.64, allowing 29 hits and 22 earned runs over 15.2 innings. Plenty of Astros player props are on the table today, but Pena is my preferred option. Give me Pena to record at least two total bases against Lorenzen and company on Wednesday.
Harrison Bader Under 0.5 Singles (-145 at Caesars)
My second MLB prop bet is from a niche market. While checking BvP data, the Bader-Nola matchup stood out. Bader has faced Nola four times and struck out each time, missing on seven of eight swings. He clearly doesn’t see Nola well. Bader has also started poorly this year.
Bader enters Wednesday's game with just five hits in 41 plate appearances. Three of those have been singles. He has struck out at least once in all 11 games he has played this season. Bader is projected to bat eighth in the lineup on Wednesday. Considering San Francisco's offensive struggles, he may only get three plate appearances. That has happened twice in his last three starts. Excluding Tanner Banks, whom I do not anticipate Bader facing, the Giant outfielder is 4-for-22 with a double and eight strikeouts in his career against Philadelphia's relief pitchers.
Truth be told, I would rather bet against Bader to record two or more hits, runs, and RBI on Wednesday, depending on the price. However, I haven’t found that market available yet, so I am betting the Under on Bader to record a single in this game.
Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-143 at DraftKings)
Miles Mikolas faces his old team on Wednesday when Washington hosts St. Louis. There’s no batter-versus-pitcher data against his former teammates, but I like this matchup for Cardinals hitters, especially Alec Burleson.
The matchup between him and Mikolas profiles as an extreme pitch-to-contact scenario. Since the start of last season, only 22.2 percent of Burleson's plate appearances against right-handed pitchers have resulted in a walk or strikeout, while Mikolas has walked or struck out just 21 percent of left-handed batters over the same period. As a result, Burleson should be able to put the ball in play, increasing the likelihood of hits, runs, and RBI.
Mikolas uses five different pitches to attack lefties, but Burleson can hit all of them. Burleson has an expected batting average of over .300 on four of Mikolas' five offerings this season. Also, his xBA was .268 or higher last year on four of the five pitches he should expect from Mikolas. The Nats' righty has already surrendered 17 runs through two starts while allowing 21 baserunners. Expect plenty of traffic on the basepaths and for Burleson to take advantage of this matchup. I don't mind going the total base route here if you're concerned with the juice on the other two props I have listed.