MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (5/6)
My winning streak came to an end last week, as I finished 1-2. But it's a new day, and I am ready to start a new streak. Below are three of my favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, May 6th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-131 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My first MLB player prop for Wednesday is a bet on Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres. I suppose you can argue it is also a bet against Adrian Houser of the San Francisco Giants.
Houser is not an effective pitcher at this stage of his career. He enters this game with a 7.12 ERA through six starts, and his underlying metrics are not much better.
Houser has a 5.97 expected ERA and a 5.75 FIP. Notably, he has been hit hard both at home and by left-handed batters so far this season. Lefties have a triple slash line of .395/.453/.737 versus the veteran righty. In two home starts, Houser has allowed 12 earned runs on 20 hits. These splits align well with Merrill’s combo prop.
Merrill has yet to reach preseason expectations at the plate. However, the 23-year-old has begun to pick up his offensive production of late. Over his last four games, he has eight hits.
In the first two games of this series, Merrill has recorded 11 combined hits + runs + RBIs. Given his 5.9% career walk rate, I like his chances of hitting his way on base. Against Houser, Merrill is 2-for-4 lifetime, with one of the outs coming on a sliding catch in the outfield on a 104.7 miles per hour (MPH) line drive.
Given Houser's struggles, I expect the Padres to have plenty of baserunners, giving Merrill multiple opportunities to contribute. Therefore, I am betting on Merrill to record at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs on Wednesday.
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112 at Caesars Sportsbook)
I toyed with the idea of betting on Kyle Stowers here. Baltimore starter Brandon Young has pitched against the Miami Marlins once in his career. Stowers homered three times against Young in that game. However, that was at a point last season where Stowers was completely locked in.
Stowers has not quite reached that point this season yet. He also has very little protection behind him in Miami's lineup. It wouldn't shock me to see Young pitch around the former Oriole this time around. The good news is that these factors should lead to more opportunities for Otto Lopez.
Otto Lopez also homered against Young in that game, and he is currently on a hot streak at the plate. The Marlins shortstop carries an eight-game hitting streak into Wednesday's contest, with at least two total bases in six of those games.
Part of the reason Lopez has been able to amass total bases is that he refuses to take a walk. Lopez has not drawn one in two weeks. With Stowers looming behind him, I do not expect that to change in this game.
Lopez also profiles extremely well against Young's arsenal. The right-hander features a slider, sinker and four-seam fastball most often to right-handed batters. Lopez has a slugging rate of .621 or higher on all three offerings from righties so far this year.
Mark Vientos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My final MLB player prop bet for Wednesday's slate is a bet on Mark Vientos of the New York Mets. The Mets have certainly had their fair share of struggles offensively this season. But Vientos is on a roll and has an excellent matchup.
Vientos has tallied four extra-base hits over his last four games. His batted ball data is even more encouraging. Vientos has hit the ball nine times in his last three games. Seven of those balls have been hit hard, with six of the seven exceeding a 100 MPH exit velocity. Five of those have been barrels.
Vientos endured one of the unluckier games you'll see in his last game at Colorado on Monday. Although his four plate appearances produced expected batting averages of .720, .760, .940 and .780, he went just 1-for-4 with a single. Two of his outs would have been home runs in most Major League ballparks. I am expecting some positive regression against a pitcher he matches up well with.
Michael Lorenzen takes the mound for the Rockies on Wednesday night. Vientos is 4-for-5 lifetime versus Lorenzen, including a home run. That includes two hits in three at-bats when Lorenzen faced the Mets in New York two weeks ago. Lorenzen has also struggled mightily when pitching in his new home park.
Lorenzen has thrown 26.1 innings in his career in Colorado. He has given up 43 hits and 23 earned runs in those outings. Even though this may not be a typical Coors Field game because of the weather, I expect Vientos to continue his hot hitting and his dominance over Lorenzen. I am taking the Mets first baseman to go over his total bases number on Wednesday.