MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (7/1)
I suppose I was bound to have a reverse sweep at some point this season. Still, it was a rough way to close out June. The good news is that it's a new day, a new week and a new month. With plenty of favorable conditions and matchups. Let's get back on the right track and kick off July in style. Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, July 1st.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-139 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My first player prop on Wednesday is a bet on Gavin Sheets of the San Diego Padres to record at least two combined hits + runs +RBIs against the Chicago Cubs.
There are a few factors working in Sheets' favor. He is a much better hitter versus right-handed pitching and on the road. He is hitting over .300 this season when facing a right-hander away from Petco Park. On Wednesday, Sheets will face Cubs righty Colin Rea.
Rea has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .304 against him this year. He ranks in the bottom 15th percentile in several key metrics, including expected batting average allowed, barrel rate allowed and strikeout rate. This is a favorable head-to-head matchup for Sheets.
We should also consider the expected hitting environment for Wednesday’s game. This is a Wrigley Field day game, complete with winds blowing out and high temperatures. The total is set at 11.5, with San Diego having an implied total of 5.5 runs. Sheets has batted fourth or fifth in every game against a right-handed starting pitcher for nearly a month, and I expect the same on Wednesday. That puts him in a prime position to be in the middle of the action. Because of that, I am betting on him to go over this combo prop.
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-151 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I went back and forth on how I want to play Otto Lopez on Wednesday. His total bases player prop is probably the juiciest available option, so you may opt for a different route. Either way, Lopez is set up for a big night at the plate against Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies.
Lopez is a walking base hit versus left-handed pitching. Among 178 hitters with at least 70 plate appearances versus lefties this year, Lopez is hitting 61 points higher than anyone else in the group. He also has the seventh-lowest walk rate among this set of players. Lopez might as well just start the at-bat on first base.
Freeland is one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball. He has allowed 99 hits in 14 starts this season. Right-handed hitters have given Freeland fits. They are hitting .332 against him with a .608 slugging rate. For reference, Yordan Alvarez leads the Majors with a .607 slugging rate this season.
Lopez isn't necessarily a huge power hitter, but his .218 ISO versus lefties is 43rd among the 178 hitters with 70+ plate appearances. Lopez uses the whole field, which is an ideal approach at Coors Field. He has 18 total bases in eight career games in Colorado. I expect more of the same in this matchup. Give me Lopez to exceed 1.5 total bases.
Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 at theScore Bet)
It brings me no joy to inform you that today's version of Zac Gallen is a shell of his former self. But it will bring me joy to line our pockets by taking advantage of that information and fading Gallen on Wednesday night.
In his last six starts, Gallen has given up 30 earned runs and 58 baserunners while striking out 12 of 150 batters faced. Those numbers add up to an 8.44 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 8% strikeout rate. To put this in context, there are 185 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings this season. The worst marks in those three categories among any individual pitcher in that group are a 7.50 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and an 11% strikeout rate.
While there are multiple avenues to fading Gallen on Wednesday, I'm going with Casey Schmitt of the San Francisco Giants to record at least two total bases in this game.
Schmitt has enjoyed a breakout campaign, but his road success versus right-handed pitchers is what has me backing him in this matchup. He is hitting .306 with a .575 slugging rate against righties away from Oracle Park. That .575 mark puts Schmitt in the top 20 among 276 qualified hitters in that split.
These numbers include Schmitt's 0-for-4 outing on Tuesday night, but do not be fooled by the box score. He hit three balls over 100 miles per hour (MPH), including a barrel. Schmitt has six hard-hit balls and three barrels in the first two games of this series despite going 0-for-8. Positive regression should be on our side.
Schmitt is 4-for-10 lifetime with a home run against Gallen. And most of those meetings took place when Gallen was in much better form than he is now. I expect Schmitt to continue to get the better of Gallen and am betting on him to record multiple total bases.