MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (7/8)
Admittedly, I am limping toward the finish line of the first half of the MLB season. But there is still time to turn things around and build some momentum heading into the All-Star break. With that said, here are my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, July 8th.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Miami Marlins have been one of the hottest offensive clubs in the Majors, scoring 65 runs over their last eight games. Sure, it helps when you play most of those games in Colorado and Sacramento. But the point remains.
Miami scored six runs on 11 hits in Tuesday's home win against the Seattle Mariners, and they look poised to do more damage on Wednesday. I am betting on Otto Lopez to record at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs against George Kirby and company.
Kirby is a solid pitcher, but he pitches to a ton of contact. His 21.1% strikeout rate is five percentage points off last year's pace. Kirby always maintains a low walk rate. As a result, he has given up the sixth-most base hits in the Majors. He has allowed at least six base hits in nine straight starts, with seven or more hits conceded in five straight. Enter Otto Lopez.
Lopez leads the Majors with a .343 batting average. He also has the eighth-lowest walk rate among 152 qualified hitters. This is a head-to-head matchup where a walk or a strikeout is extremely unlikely. Against right-handed pitchers this season, Lopez has a batting average of .308 or higher against all three pitches he is expected to see from Kirby on Wednesday.
Kirby has given up the highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) among 31 starters with at least 100 innings. Meanwhile, Lopez has the seventh-highest BABIP among qualified hitters. Kirby has allowed at least two runs in eight straight starts, including six with three or more earned runs allowed. With all of that in mind, I like Lopez to fill up the box score in this game.
Chase Burns Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-130 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Next, I am betting on Chase Burns to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs against the Philadelphia Phillies.
To be honest, I was surprised this number wasn't set at 1.5. I believe we are getting some value here, given Philadelphia's reputation as an offensive powerhouse. But that reputation may be a bit overblown.
The Phillies have been a below-average offense against right-handed pitchers this season. They have a 96 wRC+ versus righties, good for 21st in the Majors. To be fair, Philadelphia is seventh in both ISO and slugging rate. It is not crazy to suggest they could hit at least one home run against Burns, especially in Great American Ball Park. Even so, Burns has been too good for me to fade.
Burns has given up two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts this season. That includes a May matchup against the Phillies, in which Burns allowed a run on three hits in six innings. He also pitched well against Philadelphia in his only opportunity last season. Burns allowed one run on two hits over 4.2 innings in his third career MLB start last July.
Overall, Phillies hitters are a combined 4-for-30 with 12 strikeouts against the 23-year-old Burns. I believe he will limit the damage in this game. Burns may allow a run or two, but I still anticipate him going under his total earned runs allowed number.
Michael King Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-111 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
For my final MLB player prop of the evening and the first half of the season, I am picking Michael King of the San Diego Padres to pitch at least six innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
King failed to go over this number in his last home start. But he was facing the Los Angeles Dodgers, so I am willing to give him a pass.
Before that, King had pitched at least six innings in eight out of nine home starts. That includes an April start in which King pitched six innings against Arizona. He has had great success versus the Diamondbacks in his career. Arizona hitters are just 12-for-62 with four walks against the San Diego right-hander.
Arizona has struggled against right-handed pitching all season long. Their 82 wRC+ is the lowest among all 30 MLB teams. They have also had issues generating runs of late, regardless of who is pitching. The Diamondbacks have totaled just 40 runs in their last 11 ballgames.
King has been extremely efficient of late. He has eclipsed this number in five out of seven starts overall despite exceeding 93 pitches on just one occasion.
Considering that this will be King's final start until at least next weekend, the Padres may let him throw a few more pitches than usual on Wednesday. Between that and the matchup itself, this feels like a good spot to back Michael King. I am picking him to pitch at least six innings.