MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (8/12)
The player props have not been very kind in recent weeks. But hopefully hitting a couple of home run bets last night can help turn the tide. Here are three of my favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, August 12th.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
For my first MLB player prop on Wednesday, I am taking Merrill Kelly to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs against the Colorado Rockies.
There are a few reasons I like this prop. While Kelly has had issues over the course of the season, he has been pretty good lately. He has gone under this number in six of his last seven starts overall, including four straight at home.
The Rockies have not been as bad as they usually are offensively away from Coors Field this season. But they are still below average in nearly every offensive metric when playing on the road.
Putting too much stock in what occurred in previous seasons may lead to occasional blind spots. Having said that, Kelly's career success against Colorado is noteworthy. Kelly is 9-0 in his last 14 starts against the Rockies. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of those outings. It should come as no surprise then that Colorado's hitters have poor lifetime numbers against Arizona's veteran right-hander, with one exception.
Ezequiel Tovar is 8-for-18 with three doubles and two home runs versus Kelly. The rest of the Rockies are a combined 10-for-58 with three doubles and two home runs. And for what it's worth, Tovar is only 1-for-5 with zero extra-base hits against Kelly in Arizona.
Some additional circumstances may skew towards Kelly going under this number. Arizona is off on Thursday, and their bullpen is well rested. Meanwhile, Kelly left his last start with leg cramps. It will not shock me if the Diamondbacks limit the 37-year-old to some degree.
Colorado's top slugger, Hunter Goodman, has started five straight games, including four behind the plate. The Rockies may opt to give him a day off. I like this bet even if Kelly is not limited and Goodman plays. But it is always nice to have multiple paths to the land of green checkmarks.
Bryan King Under 1.5 Hits Allowed (-155 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
My next MLB player prop for Wednesday is one where we will probably know the outcome within 20 minutes of the first pitch. I am taking Bryan King of the Houston Astros to allow fewer than 1.5 hits against the San Francisco Giants.
King is opening for Houston on Wednesday. Openers can be a bit hit-or-miss (no pun intended). But this seems like an occasion where I do not expect King to pitch more than one inning. He pitched both Saturday and Sunday, and Houston has both Ronel Blanco and Tatsuya Imai as potential innings eaters once King leaves the game. The Astros are also off on Thursday, so they could use another bullpen arm or two if needed.
Since last week's trade deadline, San Francisco is 15-for-91 with 32 strikeouts as a group when facing left-handed pitchers. The top of their lineup has been a bit better, but not by much.
The quartet of Bryce Eldridge, Jung Hoo Lee, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers has gone 10-for-47 with 15 strikeouts versus southpaws in the last week. If those are the only four hitters King faces, I believe he will be able to avoid allowing multiple hits.
As of this writing, Fanatics Sportsbook is the only sportsbook to have posted this line. Once others follow suit, you may find a better price than the one I paid and posted. Always shop for the best price.
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-121 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My third and final MLB prop for Wednesday is a bet on Bryan Reynolds of the Pittsburgh Pirates. I like him to record at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs on Wednesday night against the Miami Marlins.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled offensively lately. They have lost 11 of their last 14 games and have scored two or fewer runs in eight of those games. But that has not stopped Reynolds from producing at the plate. Reynolds has recorded at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs in nine of those 14 games. I expect him to continue that trend in a favorable matchup.
Miami will have Janson Junk pitching on Wednesday. Junk has been awful against left-handed hitters this season. Opposing lefties are hitting .320 against Junk this season.
Reynolds should be right in the thick of a lefty-heavy lineup that includes Jake Mangum, Brandon Lowe and Spencer Horwitz. This feels like a game where the Pirates can break out of their slump, and Reynolds should be one of the catalysts.
Reynolds also profiles well against Junk's pitch mix. The switch-hitting outfielder is hitting .299 and slugging .502 against the four pitches he is most likely to see from Miami's right-hander. Reynolds does struggle against sliders but Junk himself has not had a great deal of success with that pitch.
Junk will struggle against the top of Pittsburgh's lineup. We don't need Reynolds to have a monster game to cash this player prop. We just need him to do what he has been doing despite Pittsburgh's recent offensive woes.