MLB Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (9/2)
Last week was the second week in a row that I took an under on a hitting prop. In both cases, the player did not start the game, thus voiding the bets. The good news is I correctly identified poor matchups. But the goal is to put more money in our pockets, so consider that lesson learned. Here are my three favorite MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, September 2.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(All bets one unit, unless otherwise specified.)
Daylen Lile Over 1.5 Hits/Total Bases (-110 at DraftKings)
For my first MLB player prop bet for Wednesday, I am betting on Daylen Lile of the Washington Nationals to register at least two combined hits, runs, and RBI against Grant Holmes and the Atlanta Braves.
To say Lile sees Holmes well would be putting it mildly. Atlanta's right-hander has made two starts against Washington this season and faced Lile twice in each instance. Lile hit a triple off the wall in the first meeting and homered twice in the second.
It also happens that the 23-year-old outfielder enters this game red-hot at the plate. Lile has recorded at least two HRRBI in seven of the nine games during Washington's current homestand. In those nine outings, he has 14 hits, 10 runs scored, and 14 runs batted in.
Washington should also get a big boost to their lineup on Wednesday with the expected return of James Wood. Wood has been out since August 3 due to an oblique injury. Despite that, he is still tied for the Major League lead in runs scored.
I don't mind betting on Lile to drive in a run, or to have at least two total bases. However, the HRRBI serves as a catch-all in that regard, and this is a solid price all things considered.
Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-130 at Fanatics)
Next, I am taking Pete Alonso to record at least two total bases in Wednesday's series finale against the Colorado Rockies and Tomoyuki Sugano.
It took a while, but the chickens are finally coming home to roost for the Rockies' right-hander. After drastically outperforming his expected statistics for most of the season, Sugano has surrendered 18 runs across his last three starts. I anticipate more of the same when Sugano faces his old club.
Alonso has had another excellent season, and profiles well against Sugano's pitch mix. The Polar Bear has a .563 slugging percentage versus righties when facing the six pitches he should expect to encounter against Sugano. If you narrow it down to the three pitches Sugano throws most, Alonso's slugging percentage rises to .636. These numbers coincide with Alonso's recent road exploits.
Alonso has 32 batted ball events on the road against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. He has 19 hard-hit balls, including seven barrels in this split. Of course, Coors Field remains one of the best ballparks to hit in. Alonso has 29 hits in 20 career games in Colorado, including 13 extra-base hits.
Sugano allows the highest barrel rate per plate appearance in the Major Leagues. He has also walked less than four percent of right-handed batters this season. If he comes after Alonso, we may not need three plate appearances to cash this player prop.
Andrew Vaughn OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-114 at DraftKings)
My final MLB player prop bet is one on Andrew Vaughn of the Milwaukee Brewers. I am taking the Over on his HRRBI prop against David Peterson and the Chicago Cubs. Multiple factors are working in Vaughn's favor in this matchup.
Vaughn has excelled against left-handed pitching all season long. He is hitting .351 and slugging .564 against southpaws this year. That includes an average above .400 on the road when facing left-handed pitchers. Peterson has allowed a .289 batting average versus right-handed hitters, compared to a .239 mark against lefties.
Wednesday's game will be played in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Early weather reports suggest the wind will be blowing out and hitting conditions will be favorable. That may not impact Vaughn as much as other players, because he does not hit many fly balls. However, there should be increased traffic on the basepaths on Wednesday given those conditions. An RBI single would do the trick just fine here.
Peterson has made five starts in Wrigley since joining the Cubs via trade two months ago. In two games where conditions were extremely favorable for pitchers, he allowed two total runs on eight hits in 13 innings. In his other three starts, Peterson has given up 13 earned runs on 22 hits in 13.2 innings pitched.
There is some potential risk for Vaughn to draw a walk, or for Milwaukee to pinch-hit for him late in the game. However, there is enough meat on the bone for me to bite. Because of that, I am betting on Andrew Vaughn to rack up at least two total hits, runs, and runs batted in on Wednesday.