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MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (Padres/Phillies)

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The NLCS heads to Philadelphia today, with both teams trying to take a 2-1 series lead. Let’s take a look at this matchup from an NRFI view.

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies – 7:37 ET

Both of these teams have made it to this point in the postseason on the backs of strong pitching and timely offense. While the Phillies may not be sending one of their two aces to the mound, they will send a pretty good pitcher in Ranger Suarez out there. Suarez struggled in his first postseason start and did have a slightly disappointing 2022 season. His biggest issue is walks, as he far too often puts himself in bad counts.

This is not a great matchup for him due to the patience that the Padres show as a team. Their 9.3% BB rate is tied for fifth in the league. While this is a difficult matchup on paper, Suarez finished the regular season extremely well, and with a pumped-up Philly crowd at his back, Suarez can make it through the first cleanly.

The Padres will send out Joe Musgrove, who may be their most talented pitcher. Musgrove has been excellent through two starts and will look to keep it rolling in this one. He has a slightly above-average K-rate that he pairs with low walk numbers. He has an excellent 0.245 wOBA allowed in the first run through the order, and despite the talent of the upper third of the Phillies’ offense, there’s enough to keep it going. Their top-of-the-order hitters, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins are extremely patient, but a strike thrower like Musgrove can neutralize their strengths. He should easily do his part to keep the first inning clean.

Pick: NRFI -140

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