Top MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/13)
The A.L. teams return to action this afternoon as the Mariners try to get back into the win column against the Astros while the Guardians attempt to take down the Yankees in the Bronx. Each game features an electric pitching matchup, and I'm locking in No Runs First Inning (NRFI) for both games. Let's dive into the stats and trends that matter.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
The Astros found themselves down four runs on three different occasions in Tuesday's series opener, but they still found a way to battle back and secure a win. An Alex Bregman two-run shot in the 8th brought Houston within two runs while a walk-off three-run moonshot from Yordan Alvarez ultimately won the game 8-7. These divisional foes are back at it at 3:37 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park with a pitching matchup featuring Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez.
Castillo's made one start this postseason, and that was a winning effort in game one of the Wild Card Round against the Blue Jays. The right-hander tossed 7.1 scoreless innings and allowed six hits while punching out five batters. As for his regular season numbers, Castillo finished at 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Valdez had a dominant regular season and finished at 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA (11th) and 1.16 WHIP (24th). The southpaw was so effective that he recorded 25 straight quality starts and broke the single-season record for quality starts (deGrom, 24). Most recently, Valdez faced the Phillies to finish the regular season and went 5.0 innings, holding them scoreless and allowing just two hits and a walk. He struck out 10 batters in the winning effort.
Valdez squared off against the M's twice en route to his historic season. The lefty threw for 13.2 innings and allowed six earned runs (3.95 ERA), and they hit .255 against him. While those aren't dominant numbers, it's worth mentioning that the current Seattle roster is hitting just .205 (18-88) against Valdez with no home runs, no triples, and two doubles. On the flip side, we don't have much head-to-head data for Castillo. He's only faced four Astros, and they're 3-10 (.300) against him with no extra-base hits. We can rely on Castillo's recent form, though, as he's only surrendered one earned run over his last two starts (13.1 IP). Let's ride with NRFI in H-Town this afternoon.
Bet: Mariners at Astros NRFI (-145 via DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
The Guardians look to bounce back from a 4-1 loss tonight as they turn to Shane Bieber to handle the starting pitching responsibilities. The Yankees will opt for Nestor Cortes in this Divisional Round clash scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium.
Bieber mowed down the Rays in his first playoff start of the year last Friday. The former Cy Young winner lasted 7.2 innings and gave up just one earned run on three hits and a walk. For whatever reason, Bieber lost the nasty strikeout stuff that he possessed in his early years. You used to be able to count on him to record double-digit punchouts with every start. However, he's learning to live without the putaway pitches and has shifted to a style where he opts for soft contact and getting groundballs. Bieber's near a career-low this season in average exit velocity (89.5) and just shy of a career-high in GB% at 48.1%. Ultimately, the right-hander finished 2022 at 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA (12th) and 1.04 WHIP (17th). He's still very effective, in my opinion.
Cortes has been equally as good this season and finished at 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 28 starts. The southpaw wrapped up the regular season campaign against the Orioles on the 1st and picked up a win. Cortes lasted 7.1 innings and held them scoreless on one hit and two walks while striking out 12.
Cortes was incredible down the stretch, posting a 1.35 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over his final six starts. As for the head-to-head numbers, the lefty has held the current Guardians roster to a .118 average over 34 at-bats (four hits). As for Bieber, the Yankees are 20-68 (.294) against him, with six home runs and 10 total extra-base hits. You'd like to see those numbers a little lower, but like Castillo above, let's turn to his impeccable form and lock in NRFI here. As long as Bieber can limit fly balls in this smaller ballpark tonight, he should be able to keep Cleveland in the game.
Bet: Guardians at Yankees NRFI (-165 via DraftKings)
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