MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/18)
We have two games to choose from on today’s slate, thanks to yesterday’s rainout. In one of the weirder situations, I remember we have an NLCS Game 1 as well as an ALDS Game 5. Both provide us with intriguing NRFI bets.
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Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees – 4:07 ET
With the rainout, the Yankees will get the benefit of starting Nestor Cortes. Coming off his Game 2 start on Friday, this will be a start on short rest for Nestor. As far as I can tell, Cortes has not made a short rest start like this at the MLB level, making him a bit of a wildcard. Additionally, he struggled a bit in his first career playoff appearance; however, the argument in his favor is one I have made a lot in this column. Cleveland has one of the worst offenses in all of baseball against left-handed pitching, and as a result, I love this set-up for Nasty Nestor.
At the time of this article’s writing, we still are not 100% who will start for Cleveland. While Francona has previously implied that he is reluctant to start Shane Bieber on short rest, the fact that they have not immediately listed Aaron Civale as the starter means they may be rethinking that point. Civale is a talented pitcher who has the ability to generate swings and misses and limits walks. His homers are a bit of an issue, but he is talented enough to keep the Yankee offense at bay in the first. The argument is much easier if Shane Bieber gets the start, as he is one of the best pitchers in the game. This number may jump up a ton if he’s officially named as the starter.
Pick: NRFI -150
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres – 8:03 ET
Both of these teams have made surprising runs to the NLCS on the backs of strong pitching and solid offense. With how their series ended, both can line up their rotations the way they would prefer. For the Padres, that means Yu Darvish is getting the Game 1 start. Darvish is actually a pitcher who tends to struggle early in games. He has allowed a wOBA over 0.300 the first time through the order and really dominates once he settles into a game. Overall, he doesn’t have a massive walk issue, but his early-game walk rate is elevated. The Phillies have a patient offense that may be able to take advantage of Darvish’s relative issues. However, Darvish has been excellent so far this postseason, and with a huge start at home, he will likely be at his best.
For the Phillies, Zack Wheeler takes the mound. Unlike Darvish, Wheeler is dominant the first time he runs through an order. He has a wOBA allowed of 0.265 early in games, mostly on the backs of a minuscule walk rate. Wheeler now has a long track record of success and is becoming one of the best pitchers in the game. This Padres offense has not exactly been blowing the doors off of teams and has actually seen a lot of their success come from the bottom third of the order. Wheller is plenty good enough to continue to limit the damage done by the top of this order and get through a clean bottom of the first.
Pick: NRFI -160
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