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MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions: Wednesday (7/5)

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Happy belated Fourth of July! Per usual the focus will be on pitcher props from yours truly. Here are the best PrizePicks plays for Wednesday, July, 5th.

Wednesday’s Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions

This season: 42-25-3

Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Milwaukee has slowed down their K-heavy ways vs. left-handed pitching lately, but they still have the highest K% (27.9%) and 2nd worst wRC+ (80) vs. Southpaws this year. Justin Steele has a phenomenal track record against them too. The Brewers roster has a 38.2% K% and .284 xwOBA in 68 combined PAs against him. The vast majority of that (58 PAs) has come via Yelich, Adames, Caratini, and Tellez.

Steele had 8 strikeouts across 6 scoreless innings against the Brew-Crew on the 1st of April. He has cleared this in four of his last six outings (excluding an injury-shortened 3 IP start) and should make it five of seven tonight in Milwaukee.

Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts

The King of the Ghost Fork has eclipsed this line in 12 of his first 15 MLB outings averaging 6.7 per start. He ranks in the top 81% in K% and 74% in whiff%, largely due to that split finger of his. That pitch has the 4th best CSW% and 2nd best SwStr% on it out of all splitters thrown in the show. Senga doesn’t have the easiest matchup here facing Arizona, but the last three righty starters to go against the D-Backs have gone over this with relative ease. Max Scherzer had 9 punchouts against them yesterday, Griffin Canning had 9, and Zach Eflin found 7. I like Senga’s chances to get at least 6 strikeouts today the way he has in 80% of his starts.

Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts

It’s his first start back since the end of May, but even if he’s limited to 5 innings, E-Rod should find at least 5 punchouts against the A’s. They have the worst wRC+ (55) and 2nd highest strikeout rate (27.9%) over the last month against lefties. Fellow Tiger teammate Tarik Skubal made his first start of the year against Oakland yesterday following Tommy John surgery. He struck out 6 batters across 4 perfect innings while throwing just 57 pitches.

I doubt Rodriguez will be on as short of a leash as Skubal, and I assume he will be pushed to at least the 75-pitch mark. He threw 58 pitches in his lone rehab start in the Minors. E-Rod has recorded 5 or more K’s in 9 of his 11 starts this year, averaging 6.1 per outing. This sits at -135 at DraftKings, so take the value over at PrizePicks.

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.