MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/19)
And we're back!
Major League Baseball is back on Friday following this week's All-Star festivities. We have 14 games on the docket, which gives us plenty of chances to cook up some Same Game Parlays (SGPs).
Having said that, actually finding and placing these bets was a bit of a challenge. Several sportsbooks continue to wait until the morning of the games to post some relevant player props we can incorporate into our SGPs. And FanDuel Sportsbook was down the whole time I was writing these up. You would think they would have done maintenance while there were virtually no sports going on, but they must know something I don't.
In any event, here are three of my favorite MLB Same-Game Parlays for Friday, July 19. Adjust as you see fit and best of luck!
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Friday's Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
- Leg 1: Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-105)
- Leg 2: Jonathan India Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Leg 3: Over 9 Total Runs (-108)
Our first SGP for Friday takes us to Washington, where Patrick Corbin and the Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds. I usually like to pick on Corbin regardless of the matchup, but there is plenty of data to support the fade of Corbin on Friday.
Corbin has the highest ERA among 68 qualified pitchers this season. His expected ERA (xERA) is more than a run higher than any other qualified pitcher in baseball. He has allowed six or more hits in 14-of-19 starts this season. Additionally, every Cincinnati Reds hitter who has faced Corbin has had success versus the veteran left-hander.
All eight of the Reds hitters who have faced Corbin have at least a .333 batting average and .438 on-base percentage against him. They have combined for a .446/.500/.714 triple slash line in 62 plate appearances.
Cincinnati is aggressive, walking at the third-lowest rate in the league against lefties over the past month. This approach, combined with their success against Corbin, should result in at least six base hits.
At the top of the lineup for Cincinnati will be Jonathan India. India is 4-for-10 with a home run lifetime against Corbin. He also leads the Reds with a .306 batting average versus left-handers this year. India will likely get three cracks at Corbin, which is why I like him to record at least two total bases.
The Nationals have allowed 68 runs in Corbin's last 10 starts. They have also just traded Hunter Harvey to the Kansas City Royals. That weakens what was already a suspect bullpen outside of closer Kyle Finnegan. Meanwhile, Frankie Montas has not exactly been adept at keeping opposing teams off the scoreboard either.
Montas enters Friday's game with a 4.38 ERA, 4.85 xERA, and 4.63 xFIP. His xFIP is even higher than Corbin's. Because of that, I prefer to take the Over on 9 total runs than pick either side. But if you have a strong lean either way, you can pick either Cincinnati or Washington on the Money Line instead of the Over and still crack the +400 threshold.
MLB Same Game Parlay Odds: +435
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
- Leg 1: No Runs First Inning (-140)
- Leg 2: Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-155)
- Leg 3: George Springer Under 1.5 Total Hits (-275)
- Leg 4: Detroit Tigers Money Line (-105)
We head north of the border for our next SGP, where the Toronto Blue Jays host the Detroit Tigers. I expect a low-scoring affair early in part due to the exploits of Tigers pitcher Jack Flaherty.
Flaherty is 12-4 to the NRFI this season, including nine straight scoreless first innings. Toronto starter Yariel Rodriguez is 6-2 to the NRFI with four consecutive scoreless first frames. I like both of those trends to continue on Friday.
Flaherty has allowed five or fewer hits in five of his last six starts. He also has an excellent history against Toronto's hitters. Blue Jays bats are 9-for-60 with eight walks and 21 strikeouts in their meetings with Flaherty. There is also the chance that Detroit continues to play it safe with Flaherty as the MLB Trade Deadline approaches.
Flaherty has pitched six innings or less in five straight starts, throwing more than 83 in just two of those five outings. Between the matchup and a possibly lightened workload, I like the Under on Flaherty's 5.5-hits allowed prop.
George Springer has not been able to solve Flaherty in their past encounters. Springer is 0-for-11 with five strikeouts lifetime against Flaherty. Despite him being bumped up to the leadoff spot, I do not expect Springer to record multiple hits in this matchup.
Last but not least, I am taking the Tigers on the Moneyline at -105. Alternatively, you can play the combination of Detroit +1.5 and Under 8.5 Total Runs instead of the Money Line.
MLB Same Game Parlay Odds: +405
San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians
- Leg 1: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-135)
- Leg 2: Tanner Bibee Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-155)
- Leg 3: Matt Waldron 1+ Walks Allowed (-575)
- Leg 4: Luis Arraez 1+ Hits (-340)
- Leg 5: Steven Kwan 1+ Hits (-300)
The Cleveland Guardians host the San Diego Padres on Friday in the first game of a three-game series. Cleveland has far and away the best home record in the Major Leagues at 30-11. They also have their ace, Tanner Bibee, on the mound.
Bibee is in the top quartile among qualified starting pitchers in both xERA and xFIP this season. He is also 10th among that group in strikeout rate. His counterpart on Friday is Matt Waldron. Waldron ranks in the bottom 20 among qualifiers in both strikeout rate and xFIP.
Waldron also struggles against left-handed hitters, especially on the road. He has allowed an .837 OPS to lefty hitters on the road this year. This is relevant because the Guardians will likely stack the lineup with lefties on Friday. All of these factors add up to me liking the Guardians on the Moneyline.
Bibee has allowed one or fewer walks in six of his last seven home starts. He is facing a Padres unit that has the lowest walk rate (4.6 percent) versus right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days.
On the other side of the equation, Waldron has walked at least one hitter in 9-of-10 road starts, with multiple walks in 7-of-10. I am taking the Under on Bibee's walk line while betting on Waldron to issue at least one free pass.
Finally, I like each team's All-Star leadoff hitter to record at least one hit in this game. Luis Arraez is hitting .325 versus right-handers with a 3.9-percent walk rate this year. Those numbers are even more pronounced (.412, 2.5 percent) when facing a righty on the road.
Steven Kwan is hitting .333 versus right-handed pitchers this year, including .329 at home. Walks are more of a concern with Kwan, as he sports a 7.9-percent walk rate against righties. However, I still expect him to figure out a way to hit his way on base on Friday.
MLB Same Game Parlay Odds: +415