MLB Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: Saturday (4/26)
We have a few interesting MLB matchups today. Let’s examine them and make a couple of same-game parlay (SGP) betting cards with our top MLB picks and predictions.
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Saturday's Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres
- Leg 1: Padres Moneyline (-142)
- Leg 2: Dylan Cease 8+ Strikeouts (+140)
It looks like Dylan Cease is having a rough season, but his inflated ERA stems from one outing where he allowed nine earned runs to the Athletics. Other than that, he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his five starts.
Cease has been one of the best pitchers in the last few seasons and a Cy Young contender. If he can get on a run like he has in recent memory, he can erase his bad start. He's changed up his pitching strategy and is using his fastball far less, going from 43% last year to 36.7% this season while making the slider his lead pitch. It's been successful, as hitters have a .212 expected batting average and a 35.4% whiff rate.
The Rays have not been a good contact-hitting team - 19th in chase rate (28.3%) and 15th in whiff rate (25%). This is a great opportunity for Cease to get swings and misses, and he could benefit from his 26.5% strikeout rate.
Parlay Odds: +309
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leg 1: Braves Moneyline (+100)
- Leg 2: Over 9 Runs (-122)
- Leg 3: Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 Earn Runs Allowed (-105)
Merrill Kelly is someone whose surface numbers look awful, but that's because of one start. He allowed nine earned runs in Yankee Stadium, one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league, and that doesn't benefit a fly ball pitcher like Kelly. His other four starts have gone very well, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each. He'll pitch at home, where he has a 2.38 ERA.
However, this will be a tough matchup against the Braves, who might be turning around their season as their bats get hot. In their last six games, they're third in slugging (.473), fourth in barrel rate (11.4%) and eighth in home run-to-fly ball ratio. That ability to hit fly balls and send them out could mean trouble for a fly ball pitcher like Kelly.
Parlay Odds: +611
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
- Leg 1: Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
- Leg 2: Both Teams to Score 3+ Runs (+110)
- Leg 3: Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-145)
It's been a slow start for these two projected playoff teams. Houston is lumped with all the other teams in the American League West, as they are divided by no more than two losses. Kansas City had a brutal start to the season, but might be turning things around, having won five straight.
Framber Valdez had an excellent 2025 debut but hasn't been as successful since - a 6.00 ERA and 3.60 FIP in his last four starts. The problem that has come up for most of his career is control. He has two starts where he has at least three walks. He misses mostly with his curveball and change-up, and he's struggling to get hitters to chase those pitches.
Interestingly, Michael Wacha has changed his approach after being successful the last couple of seasons. That success had to do with making his change-up his primary pitch, but this season he's switched back to throwing more four-seam fastballs. The change-up continues to be his best pitch, with opponents hitting .172 off it, while they are hitting .250 against the fastball.
These pitchers are still trying to find their groove and could struggle against two great offenses.
Parlay Odds: +563