MLB Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: Thursday (4/17)

by Clint Graves |
Apr 17, 2025

I have cracked the code for MLB betting. I get I’m 0-2 this season (got hooked on pitcher strikeouts last week), but I feel the analysis was correct. However, I still made a mistake, and that mistake was targeting pitcher strikeouts. The idea of trying to predict pitcher strikeouts makes sense, going after players with hit-or-miss stuff while targeting lineups susceptible to strikeouts. However, game plans change daily, teams hold private meetings talking about areas to focus on, guys miss their pregame meals, guys fight with their wives, etc.

I’ve been thinking about how to bet on baseball, what advantages I can gain outside of stats, and have the game work in my favor. I feel I am always on the butt end of a pitcher getting pulled at 71 pitches, then getting killed by the guy going out for the seventh inning at 95 pitches. But my problem was that I had been betting on players rather than the manager. The outcomes of players are impossible to predict; however, the decisions of managers are a little more controlled and predictable. Here’s what a manager can control:

Bullpen Usage
Lineups
Game Plan/Aggressiveness

Now, which props can be connected to these decisions?

Bullpen Usage:

Pitcher over/under outs recorded
Pitcher over/under hits recorded
Pitcher to record a win
Pitcher over/under strikeouts

Lineups:

Player to record a hit (potential extra at-bat per game if batting near the top of the lineup)
Player to record an RBI (batting fourth, fifth, sixth)
Player to score a run (batting first, second, ninth)

Game Plan/Aggressiveness:

Opposing pitcher pitch count
Opposing pitcher walks
Opposing pitcher strikeouts
Opposing pitcher outs recorded

Of the three, game plan/aggressiveness would be the most difficult to hammer down. Constant changes and adjustments, and even tells during pitches make this an impossible way to analyze baseball for betting. Let’s scratch that one.

That leaves us with bullpen usage and lineup. Let’s try to find advantages in each.

Bullpen Usage

Use FantasyPros’ Fantasy Baseball Closer Depth Charts for a snapshot and bullpen usage for each team.

The theory is:

Teams with high bullpen usage over the last five days will be more inclined to stretch their starting pitcher if they can give their bullpen a rest.
A team with low bullpen usage over the last five days will be less inclined to stretch their starting pitcher, finding advantage in both pulling the starter earlier while getting the bullpen work.

You will want to target starting pitcher unders when the bullpen has not been used lately, or overs when bullpen is exhausted.

Lineups

This one is a little trickier; rather than blindly taking cleanup hitters’ RBI or leadoff hitters’ run scored, we need to look deeper into lineup protection.

What is lineup protection?

Imagine there are two outs, bases empty, and you’re pitching to your cousin, who is a pretty good baseball player. On deck is Shohei Ohtani. Do you pitch your cousin differently? You will do everything you can to make sure your cousin does not get a walk to first base. You’ll take your chances with him over Ohtani. Lineup protection is that idea.

You will want to target hitter props of players batting high in the order, where the player batting after them is better.

I told you I had some interesting strategies, but you know they both are valid.

Teams to Target Today

Going into Wednesday’s games, the Cincinnati Reds had the most-used bullpen in the MLB, which explains why Nick Martinez’s outs recorded prop was 17.5. He went 4.2 innings, and the Reds used four bullpen arms, putting a further strain on the relievers. Today’s Reds starter, Brady Singer, has an outs recorded line of 16.5 (-125 to the over).

Also going into Wednesday, the Mets had the second-most bullpen arms used, then proceeded to use six more, pushing their bullpen to the brink in an extra-innings loss against the Twins. Today’s Mets starting pitcher, Griffin Canning, has an outs recorded line of 17.5 (-105 to the over).

Dang, I love both to build our same-game parlay around. Let’s build the rest out.

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