MLB Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/1)
Am I 0-3 on the same-game parlays (SGPs) to start the season? Oh, yeah. Big time.
I could make excuses, talking about how I keep missing one leg or how a pitcher has 68 pitches through three innings, yet somehow goes six innings to hit their over on outs recorded. Instead, I am going to go a different route. (See what I did there, I made an excuse while acting like I wouldn’t. Big league stuff.)
I am invigorated. My confidence isn’t shaken, playing bullpens and isolating player motivation is working overall, and I’ll stay consistent with it. Unfortunately, bullpens today have not been as cut and dry as prior weeks, so we need to pivot today.
Easy enough.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlay Picks
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen vs. Kodai Senga
- Leg 1: Mets First 5 Moneyline (-166)
- Leg 2: Zac Gallen Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Leg 3: Juan Soto Over 0.5 Walks (-200)
Leg 1: Mets First 5 Moneyline (-166)
Kodai Senga has been a killer in 2025 so far, sporting a 1.05 WHIP and a minuscule 1.26 ERA, and his hard-hit numbers back up his elite numbers.
Zac Gallen, on the other hand, has not been his usual self. He’s been hit hard lately, giving up 13 runs in his last four starts. His underlying numbers are not anything to have faith in: 5.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and a 35:15 K:BB ratio over 32.1 frames in 2025.
Leg 2: Zac Gallen Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Jumping further into Zac Gallen, his name and reputation are impacting his strikeout line.
Yes, he had 12 strikeouts against the Yankees on April 2nd, but over his last 30 days, he has just 32 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched. Which is solid. Solid. But looking at his line of outs recorded at 16.5 and strikeouts at 5.5, he would need to average more than a strikeout an inning against a team ranked third in baseball with only 7.2 strikeouts per game.
Add in the motivation piece of the Mets coming off a loss and looking to steal a series in Arizona, and I expect the Mets to be dialed in, focused on driving up the pitch count and putting the ball in play.
Leg 3: Juan Soto Over 0.5 Walks (-200)
Juan Soto signed a deal with the Mets for $765 million last year. He is batting .241 with a .758 OPS. Yikes. Those are Jake McCarthy numbers.
But if you see only that, you’re missing the key piece: 23 walks in 126 plate appearances. Soto has an 18.2% walk rate.
If that seems exceptionally high, you’re right, it is. And then we have Gallen, who has 15 walks in 32 innings, and a Mets team that will grind out at-bats. This bet is creating itself.
Give me Juan Soto over 0.5 walks at (-200).
Is -200 heavy action on the over? This doesn’t scare me, it shows we’re heading in the right direction.
I feel great about this. Go Mets.
Parlay Odds: +270
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: