MLB Same Game Parlays & Picks: Saturday (7/4)
We have two MLB same game parlays (SGPs) for you today. Check them out below.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlays
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leg 1: Dodgers -1.5 (-117)
- Leg 2: Game Total Over 8 (-145)
- Leg 3: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Rather than laying a steep moneyline, I’ll take the run line.
FanGraphs gives the Dodgers a 69.3% chance to win, projecting an average score of roughly 6-4. That translates to an average margin of just over two runs, which comfortably covers the -1.5.
The matchup also heavily favors Los Angeles in all angles. The Dodgers are projected for nearly six runs against Griffin Canning, while Yamamoto is expected to allow just 2.16 earned runs over 5.83 innings. Add in a Dodgers bullpen projected to post a combined ERA in the mid-3.00s, and Los Angeles has advantages from the first pitch through the ninth inning
This play is backed by one of the strongest projections in the FanGraphs simulation. Across 10,000 simulations, the Dodgers are projected to score 5.98 runs while the Padres chip in 3.84, giving us an expected total of 9.82 runs. That clears the posted total of 8 by more than a full run.
While Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of baseball’s premier starters, the Padres are still projected for nearly four runs, and for Griffin Canning, he's up against the vaunted Dodger lineup who has scored 9+ runs in 3 of their last 5 games.
Yamamoto only projects for 5.75 strikeouts, nearly a full strikeout below the betting line. He’s only expected to throw 5.2 innings while facing approximately 24 batters, naturally limiting his strikeout opportunities.
Yamamoto just faced this Padres lineup last week and only racked up 4 K's. They say history repeats itself, right?
Parlay Odds: +385
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals
- Leg 1: Phillies Moneyline (-156)
- Leg 2: NRFI (No Runs First Inning) (-105)
- Leg 3: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+227)
FanGraphs gives Philadelphia a 61.8% chance to win, translating to roughly a -162 fair moneyline, slightly stronger than where the betting market has priced them.
Meanwhile, Jesús Luzardo owns a clear advantage over Michael Wacha in strikeout ability and underlying metrics like FIP and Stuff+, giving the Phillies the stronger starting pitching outlook despite Wacha’s respectable ERA
Luzardo enters with a strong strikeout profile and underlying metrics that outperform his ERA, while Wacha continues to limit hard contact despite not being an overpowering arm.
Although FanGraphs projects just over 10 total runs, those runs aren’t expected to come immediately. Much of that projection comes from wearing down Kansas City’s pitching over the course of nine innings.
Kyle Schwarber is one of my favorite home run targets today due his matchup against Michael Wacha’s pitch mix.
Against Wacha’s primary offerings to lefties (changeup, four-seam fastball, and cutter), Schwarber owns a .365 batting average, 10 home runs, a 22.9% barrel rate, and an elite 60.4% hard-hit rate. His 96.6 mph average exit velocity shows he’s consistently making loud contact, and his ability to pull the ball in the air makes him a constant threat to right field.
His history against Wacha also helps make this an easy HR prop to target.
Over 22 at-bats, Schwarber has 7 hits, including 1 double and 4 HRs.
Parlay Odds: +850