MLB To Hit a Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (10/8)
The MLB playoffs continue on Sunday, with Game 2 being played in both American League series. The theme of my recommendations today is familiarity, as both batters have had success in some sort of capacity in their matchups. Corey Seager has mashed right-handed pitching this year and will be up against a starter in the rookie Grayson Rodriguez, who he's already homered against this season. In the later game, I'm going with Carlos Correa, who will be returning to a place where he's had plenty of success in Minute Maid Park in Houston, against a pitcher in Framber Valdez who has been leaking oil a little bit down the stretch.
Sunday’s Best Player To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets
Corey Seager to Hit a HR (+470 @ FanDuel)
If it weren't for Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager would likely run away with the AL MVP. Seager has been elite this season, ranking above the 90th percentile in all of the following advanced statistics: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel% and hard hit% (his sweet spot% in the 86th percentile isn't too shabby, either). His 33 regular season HRs are tied for the most in his career and tied for 16th overall in 2023. 26 of those HRs came against right-handed pitchers, which will be what he's up against on Sunday afternoon against Orioles rookie RHP Grayson Rodriguez.
Rodriguez has had a solid campaign in his first year, but he has been a victim of hard-hit balls, ranking in the 18th percentile in hard hit%, 28th percentile in average exit velocity, and 32nd percentile in xBA. Lefties are hitting 0.277 and slugging 0.482 against Rodriguez, and Seager actually already homered against Rodriguez in a late-May game in Camden Yards earlier this season. Speaking of Camden Yards, the O's ballpark ranks 7th in the MLB in offensive ballpark factors since 2021, and Seager's pull-side will negate the left-field fence that was recently moved back. I think Seager has a great matchup against a pitcher he's already homered off of in Grayson Rodriguez, especially when Rodriguez has been plagued by hard-hit balls this season.
Carlos Correa to Hit a HR (+560 @ FanDuel)
Carlos Correa has had a somewhat frustrating, injury-impacted 2023 season, but he has still maintained the ability to hit the ball hard. Correa ranks in the 60th percentile in barrel%, which has propelled him to an average exit velocity and hard hit% that both rank above the 70th percentile. Correa is slated to face off against the LHP Framber Valdez, which plays well into his hitting splits as his offensive numbers are improved against southpaws.
Framber's season-long numbers look pretty impressive, but he's actually really regressed over the latter part of the season. Since the calendar changed to July, Valdez allowed 4+ ER in 6 of his starts, giving up 6 ER in a concerning 4 starts. Though Valdez is a ground-ball-heavy pitcher, he ranks near the bottom of the league in hard-hit balls, ranking in the 3rd percentile in average exit velocity and the 6th percentile in hard hit%. If the ball stays on the ground, he's okay, but his advanced numbers indicate that elevated balls are in danger of leaving the ballpark. I also like the fact that Correa spent the first seven years of his career playing in Minute Maid Park, so he's more than familiar with the sightlines from the batter’s box, and he's put plenty of balls in the Crawford Boxes over the course of his career.
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