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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/20)

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Both pennant races are a bit more interesting after the Astros and Diamondbacks each pulled off wins last night. Houston is now tied 2-2 in the Silver Boot Series, while Arizona still trails Philadelphia 2-1. 

All four teams are in action tonight, and I'm heading to the prop sheet for my top bets. Below, I've narrowed in on three players that I think have a great chance to go yard. Let's dive into my three favorite To Hit a Home Run prop bets! 

    Today's Best Player To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

    Marcus Semien (+350)

    The rotations reset in the ALCS, which means we have the same pitching matchup as game one, featuring Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery. This rivalry showdown is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. 

    Both starters have been stingy this season when it comes to giving up home runs. Verlander finished the regular season with a HR/9 rate of 1.00, while his counterpart sat at 0.86. As for Verlander, his postseason number climbs to 1.22 over 220.1 innings of postseason work. 

    I think the 40-year-old is the more vulnerable of the two starters today, so I'll take a shot at fading him this evening. The right-hander has decent numbers against Texas, limiting the current roster to a slash line of .241/.268/.361 over 158 at-bats. Just four of those at-bats have been for home runs. Two of the tanks belong to Marcus Semien, who is 14-46 (.304) against Verlander with an additional double and triple. I think this is a favorable matchup for Semien to turn things around this postseason. I'll play him to go deep tonight at home. 

    Corbin Carroll (+900) & Ketel Marte (+390)

    The Diamondbacks have just 24 hours to celebrate their walk-off win from last night before they gear up to play game four in the Valley. The Snakes will opt for a bullpen game tonight, giving Joe Mantiply the start. The Phillies will look to get back in the win column as they send Cristopher Sanchez to the bump. First pitch for NLCS game four is slated for 8:07 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ. 

    Among today's starters, Sanchez posted the highest HR/9 rate in the regular season (1.45). He hasn't pitched yet this postseason, so he's currently on about 20 days of rest. The southpaw allowed three home runs over his four final regular season outings, which spanned 19.1 innings pitched. 

    We have a very slim sample size in the head-to-head category, as Arizona is just 3-8 (.375) against Sanchez. Two of the three hits were doubles, and they belong to Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. I'll gladly ride with last night's hero, Marte, to blast a home run tonight. During the regular season, the second baseman hit .313 and posted a .879 OPS against LHP. As for Carroll, he saw four of his 25 regular season homers come against lefties while posting a .721 OPS. A +900 sprinkle on the N.L. Rookie of the Year seems like the move tonight. Let's ride with these two Diamondbacks as they look to gain more momentum in the series.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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