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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/7)

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It’s the final weekend before the All-Star Break, and we’re looking to close it out strong from a betting standpoint. I’m starting the weekend slate with a few prop bets. Here’s who I’m locking in to hit a home run tonight. 

MLB YTD: 58-103 (+1.95 units)

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Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bo Bichette (+650)

The Blue Jays finish up the first half of the year with a three-game set in Detroit. They’ll turn to Alek Manoah, who makes his return after spending some time in the developmental leagues trying to figure things out. The Tigers counter with Alex Faedo in this American League clash scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI. 

Neither starter has been great this year, but I’m going to fade Faedo as he’ll be taking on a potent Toronto offense. The right-hander comes into this one at 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Faedo has one of the higher HR/9 rates today amongst starters, as he sits at 2.08 in 2023.

Bo Bichette is red hot to start July, as he’s hitting .375 with a .917 OPS. Overall on the year, he’s batting .320 with 15 home runs. 12 of his 15 long balls have come against right-handed pitching. Considering we have a pitching matchup between two starters with ERAs north of 5.50, we should see a ton of offense. Look for Bichette to get involved in the hit parade and possibly put one over the fence. 

Anthony Rizzo (+330) 

The Cubs wrap up the first half with a three-game series against the Yankees this weekend. The series opener features a pitching matchup between Jameson Taillon and Carlos Rodon. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY. 

Taillon will face his former team, and the right-hander has not been in great form in 2023. He’s just 2-6 and owns a 6.93 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Taillon is very susceptible to the long ball, as he’s given up 13 over 63.2 innings of work this year. That translates to a HR/9 rate of 1.84.

While New York’s offense has been slumming since Aaron Judge went to the IL, this is a great opportunity for them to get back on track. And what better man to lead the way than former Cub Anthony Rizzo? The slugger is 10-22 (.455) against Taillon with a pair of bombs and a double. Let’s lock in Rizzo to blast his 12th home run of the season tonight. 

Rafael Devers (+340)

The A’s make the trip to Boston this weekend, where they’ll take on the Red Sox. The series gets underway with a pitching matchup between Luis Medina and Brennan Bernardino. This American League tilt is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. 

Medina is not having a memorable rookie year, as he’s 2-7 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. The right-hander gets even worse on the road, where his ERA increases to 7.43, and opponents are hitting .278 against him. Medina comes into the series opener with a HR/9 rate of 1.84. 

This will be Medina’s first time facing the Red Sox, so we don’t have any head-to-head data at our disposal. But I’m feeling pretty confident that someone goes yard tonight, and I’ll roll with Rafael Devers to be that man. The infielder is hitting .252 against right-handers this year, and 13 of his 20 tanks have come against RHP. Look for the Red Sox to close out the first half with a bang. Let’s ride with Devers to go deep tonight.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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