MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/11)
The weekend is here and it's time to fire on some Home Run Prop bets! However, the numbers don't align as nicely as we'd like tonight, so I only have a pair of players that I'm confident in going deep. Here's who I'm locking in to hit homers on tonight's 15-game MLB slate.
MLB YTD: 79-138 (+8.62 units)
Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Ozzie Albies (+380)
The Braves are coming off of a series split with the Pirates in their midweek series. They'll turn to Charlie Morton as they attempt to get back in the win column. The Mets opt for Tylor Megill in this divisional clash set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY.
This is one of the games that I was excited to fade a starting pitcher in, especially since the Braves are on track to clear the Twins' 2019 record for home runs in a season (307). Atlanta has mashed 217 bombs through 113 games, which translates to a projected total of 311.1 home runs over a 162-game sample. They'll have a somewhat favorable matchup against Megill, who owns a 5.45 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. The right-hander also has an HR/9 rate of 1.30, which is slightly above average.
It's not an ideal spot, though, considering Megill has limited the Braves to a slash line of .242/.309/.287 over 62 at-bats. Only two of those at-bats have been big flies. One of them belongs to Ozzie Albies, who is 4-15 (.267) against him with a home run. Albies has found a power surge this year, launching 26 long balls, which is currently tied for 10th. So, while the numbers may not support a typical Atlanta onslaught, I think it's worth a shot on Albies to hit a dinger tonight.
Freddie Freeman (+390)
The Dodgers took care of business in the series opener last night, beating the Rockies 2-1 in Chavez Ravine. Los Angeles will turn to Lance Lynn, while Colorado will roll with Austin Gomber. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA.
Gomber enters this game at 9-8 and owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He has been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, as he's giving up 1.65 home runs per nine innings.
Like Megill above, this may not be the slam dunk that we are looking for. The Dodgers are slashing just .250/.382/.393 with two tanks against the right-hander over 56 at-bats. However, Freddie Freeman stands out amongst his teammates as he's 4-7 (.571) with a homer and a double. That translates to a 1.714 OPS. The star first baseman is having a fantastic year as he boasts the second-shortest odds to win the N.L. MVP at +600, trailing only Ronald Acuna Jr., who is -1000. Let's ride with Freeman to collect his 24th round-tripper tonight at home.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- 2023 NFL Preseason Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- WNBA Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts