MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/22)
The weekend is here and we have a massive sports slate on the horizon. Specifically, in the MLB, things are heating up down the stretch as teams jockey for playoff positioning. From a betting perspective, I'm taking it to the prop sheet tonight, where I've narrowed in on three players to hit home runs. Let's dive into the picks and analysis!
Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Corbin Carroll (+550)
The Diamondbacks are comfortably in possession of the second Wild Card spot, holding a 2.0-game edge over the Cubs and Marlins. They'll look to add a little cushion in the standings when they send Brandon Pfaadt to the bump tonight. The Yankees counter with Luke Weaver in this interleague tilt scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY.
Weaver, a former Diamondback, has bounced around quite a bit this season. The right-hander started with Cincinnati, made a quick stop in Seattle (five appearances), and was recently added by New York (one appearance). Over 23 combined starts this season, Weaver owns a 6.77 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He has been prone to giving up home runs as his HR/9 rate sits at 2.13. That's the highest among today's starting pitchers.
It won't be an easy task for Weaver tonight as he's running into a Snakes team that is slashing .366/.409/.610 against him over 41 at-bats. That sample size includes Corbin Carroll, who is 2-2 (1.000) with a home run. I'm taking the ROY favorite to blast his 26th home run over the short porch in right field.
Austin Riley (+270) & Ozzie Albies (+380)
The Braves can sit back and relax at this point as they've already secured the N.L. East title. They'll make the trip to the nation's capital this weekend, where they take on the Nationals for a trio of games. First pitch for the series opener is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
Tonight's pitching matchup features a pair of veterans in Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbin. It's the latter who I'll fade here as the left-hander has never really found his footing in Washington. Corbin owns a 5.00 ERA this season and his WHIP sits at 1.47. He owns a middle-of-the-road 1.58 HR/9 rate.
The main reason I want to back a pair of Braves tonight is because the team is chasing history. The Braves have blasted 293 homers this year, which puts them 14 behind the 2019 Twins' single-season record of 307. Atlanta still has nine games to get there, so I expect them to be swinging for the fences.
Tonight's game will be a good opportunity to add a few more bombs as they're running into Corbin. The current roster is slashing .326/.382/.528 against the southpaw over 218 at-bats. To find that much success over 218 at-bats, it's safe to say that Atlanta owns the lefty. Specifically, Ozzie Albies is 13-30 (.433) against him with three homers, a triple, and three doubles. That translates to an OPS of 1.352. As for Austin Riley, he's 8-28 (.286) with a pair of big flies and three doubles. That's a 1.001 OPS. Let's lock in these two to hit their 33rd and 37th homers, respectively.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts