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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/1)

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A pair of Dads and a pair of Nolans leading us into July as we stay hot with our HR Props!

Saturday’s Best Player to Hit a HR Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Fernando Tatis (+185) & Gary Sanchez (+285)

As I mentioned in my NRFI/YRFI article this morning, Brandon Williamson may be the tier with Patrick Corbin, Jordan Lyles, and teammate Luke Weaver, where you should blindly fade every time these guys are on the mound.

Williamson is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA, and that is no fluke because his xERA is even higher at 6.76. His HR/9 of 1.86 is the 4th highest among today’s starters, and he has allowed six home runs over his last five starts. 

Only a few guys in the league are better than Fernando Tatis against LHP. Tatis has an ISO of .350 (7th best), 186 wRC+ (7th best), and five HRs (T-6th) against lefties this season. 

I think Gary Sanchez needed some warm weather and a change of scenery because he’s been crushing the baseball since joining the Padres.

Since coming to San Diego in late May, he has seven home runs and 21 RBI. He feasts off left-handed pitching. He has an ISO of .400, is tops on the team, and is second in HRs (4), only behind Tatis.

Nolan Gorman (+340) & Nolan Arenado (+550) – Game 1 2:15 p.m. EST

The Cardinals have to be one of the more disappointing teams in 2023. Once favored to win the N.L. Central and make a deep run into the postseason, the Cards sit dead last in their division.

One of the positive notes of their season is they play well at home, as do most teams, but St. Louis is one of the better home teams. Their 15-24 record may not exactly back me up, but their offense shows up when playing at Busch Stadium.

While playing at home, the Cardinals have the 9th-highest batting average (.262), 9th-most HRs (52), and the 5th-highest wRC+ (116). Today in game one, they go against Luis Severino, who tends to give up the long ball. His HR/9 of 2.00 is the third-highest among today’s starters, and he has given up seven home runs over his last five starts.

Nolan Arenado (12) and Nolan Gorman (13) have double-digit dingers against RHP and lead the HR team in HRs at Busch Stadium. 

Let’s see if we can get some home cooking this afternoon!

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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