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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/27)

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The MLB is back with a 15-game slate as the midweek series get underway. I’m taking it to the prop sheet tonight, where I’m narrowing in on three players to hit home runs. Let’s dive into my top picks to go yard tonight.

MLB YTD: 51-95 (-1.39 units)

Tuesday’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Adolis Garcia (+275)

The Rangers have now dropped their last three games, including last night’s series opener to the Tigers. Texas will try to bounce back from the 7-2 defeat when they send Martin Perez to the bump. Detroit counters with Matt Manning in this A.L. clash scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. 

Manning makes his return from the IL tonight and it’ll be just his third start of the season. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 11.2 innings pitched. Over those 11.2 innings of work, he has allowed four home runs, which equates to a HR/9 rate of 3.09. 

His inability to keep the ball in the park won’t bode well against a Rangers side that’s crushed 104 long balls this season (7th). I’m rolling the dice on Adolis Garcia to go deep tonight. He’s batting .253 against RHP this season and 15 of his 18 home runs have come against righties. As for the head-to-head numbers, Garcia is 1-2 (.500) against Manning with a single. I think Texas’ offense bounces back in a big way tonight and they’ll use the home run to get them the victory. Let’s take a shot with Garcia to launch one. 

J.D. Martinez (+260)

The Dodgers head to the Rocky Mountains as they start a three-game series with the Rockies tonight. Tonight’s pitching matchup features a battle between Clayton Kershaw and Connor Seabold. This divisional tilt gets underway at 8:40 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO. 

Seabold is set to make his 10th start and 17th overall appearance tonight. The right-hander enters this game at 1-3 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He’s coming off of a 3.0-inning effort against the Braves on Saturday, where he allowed nine earned runs on four home runs. That was against the top-ranked home run team (141), and Seabold will be tasked with taking on the second-ranked squad tonight (124). The clunker on Saturday saw Seabold’s HR/9 rate increase to 1.75 on the year. 

I’m locking in J.D. Martinez to go deep tonight at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. The slugger is hitting .267 against RHP this season and 14 of his 16 bombs have come against righties. His OPS also climbs to .891 versus right-handers, compared to his overall mark of .856. I’m taking Martinez to hit a round-tripper tonight. 

Anthony Rizzo (+500)

The Yankees make the trip to Oakland for a trio of games this week and they’ll opt for Jhony Brito in the series opener. The Athletics counter with Paul Blackburn in this A.L. matchup. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET from the Oakland Coliseum. 

Blackburn actually hasn’t been too bad this season, at least relative to the fellow starters in Oakland’s rotation. The right-hander comes into this one at 0-0 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over five starts (25.2 IP). 

He’ll have a tall task tonight against a Yankees team that’s slashing .400/.483/.720 against him. That includes Anthony Rizzo (+500 to hit a HR) and Giancarlo Stanton (+425), who have each taken him deep. Rizzo is 1-3 (.333) while Stanton is 3-4 (.750). However, due to the lefty/righty matchup, I’m locking in Rizzo to hit a tank tonight. The left-handed slugger is hitting just .244 against RHP, but 10 of his 11 home runs have come against righties. 

It’s also worth noting that Oakland has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. The A’s are ranked dead last in both bullpen ERA (5.74) and WHIP (1.56). So, if Blackburn turns in a decent outing, we’ll have quality opportunities for Rizzo to go yard late.

Make sure to check out the rest of our best bets for Tuesday:


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