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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/4)

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It’s the Fourth of July in the United States and one of the ways that we celebrate our independence is with a full slate of baseball! All 30 teams are in action today and I’m expecting some fireworks. Here’s who I’m locking in to hit a home run tonight. 

MLB YTD: 57-101 (+1.25 units)

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Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Byron Buxton (+270) 

The Twins took care of business in last night’s opener against the Royals, beating the divisional foe 8-4. Minnesota is now 7-1 in their season series against Kansas City in 2023. Today’s pitching matchup features a battle between Zack Greinke and Kenta Maeda. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN. 

Greinke’s having a forgettable season as he enters this game at just 1-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Over five starts in June, the right-hander posted a 7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. He has been prone to giving up the long ball this year, as he’s surrendering 1.55 home runs per nine innings. That’s the third-highest mark amongst starting pitchers today. 

I’ll go ahead and play Byron Buxton to hit a bomb this afternoon. The slugger is hitting just .207 this year, but he’s mashed 14 home runs and owns a .739 OPS. As for his head-to-head numbers with Greinke, Buxton is 7-18 (.389) with a home run and a triple. All things considered, I think it’s worth a shot backing Buxton to go deep in this spot. 

Kyle Tucker (+400)

The Astros return home after a successful Silver Boot Series, where they took three out of four games from the Rangers. They’ll try to keep things rolling when they send Brandon Bielak to the bump tonight. The Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland in this interleague tilt set for 4:10 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX. 

Freeland comes into today’s matchup at 4-7 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. While you may think he has a high ERA due to pitching at Coors Field, he actually has worse numbers away from his home park. The Southpaw owns a 5.92 ERA on the road, and opponents are hitting .295 against him. That includes allowing eight homers over 38.0 innings, which translates to a road HR/9 rate of 1.89. 

Typically I don’t love the lefty/lefty matchup, but Kyle Tucker hits everyone well. Interestingly, he’s hitting .354 against lefties this season with an OPS of .985. Four of Tucker’s 13 long balls have come when facing LHP. As for the head-to-head numbers, he’s 1-3 (.333) against Freeland with a single. I think Houston’s offense lights it up today, and I’m going to take a shot with Tucker to hit a bomb. 

Bo Bichette (+600)

The Blue Jays hit the road after getting swept by the Red Sox in Ontario over the weekend. They’ll send Chris Bassitt to the mound tonight while the White Sox counter with Lucas Giolito. This American League showdown is set for 8:10 p.m. ET from Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, IL. 

Giolito has been the best pitcher in Chicago’s rotation this year. He enters this game at 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. However, the right-hander is somewhat susceptible to the long ball as he owns a 1.45 HR/9 rate. 

He has a large sample size against Toronto, and they’ve seen him relatively well. The current roster is slashing .261/.331/.470 against him over 115 at-bats. Specifically, it’s Bo Bichette who sticks out to me. The rising star is 3-8 (.375) against Giolito with a home run and a double. The ball should be flying out of the park tonight with the warm, humid air in Chicago. Let’s take a shot with Bichette to hit his 16th round-tripper of the year.

Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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