MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks: Tuesday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)

by Trenton Pruitt |
Oct 17, 2023

The Phillies took care of business in last night's NLCS opener, beating the visiting Diamondbacks 5-3 at the Bank. The two sides are back at it tonight with a pitching matchup between Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola. First pitch for game two is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.

From a betting perspective, I'm taking it to the prop sheet tonight. Below I've narrowed in on two Phillies that I think are going deep. Let's dive into my top two To Hit a Home Run prop bets for tonight!

Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

J.T. Realmuto (+475) & Trea Turner (+425)

Both of these pitchers have been fantastic this season, so it's tough to truly find an edge. Kelly comes into this one at 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA while Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. During the regular season, their HR/9 rates were 1.01 and 1.49, respectively. Neither has given up a tank this postseason.

It's all about the head-to-head numbers in this matchup. Philly has put up solid numbers against Kelly, slashing .288/.354/.441 over 59 at-bats. That includes one homer, one triple, and four doubles. The big fly belongs to J.T. Realmuto, who is 3-9 (.333) against him. The backstop has also added one of the four doubles while striking out just once. He's a solid option to put the ball in play, and like all our old coaches used to say, "Good things happen when you put the ball in play." I'll take a shot with Realmuto at nearly 5/1 odds.

The other three doubles belong to Trea Turner, who is 9-21 (.429) against the right-handed Kelly. Just three of his 21 head-to-head at-bats have ended in strikeouts. The shortstop is on fire right now, posting five multi-hit games (out of seven) this postseason. He also just blasted two bombs in the series against the Braves. Let's ride with Turner to go yard tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks: Tuesday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)

Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

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