Navigate

MLB Wild Card No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/7)

by |

Welcome to the NRFI bets article for the MLB Postseason. We will release these articles on the same schedule as the regular season posts. so let’s dive into today’s Wild Card games.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians – 12:07 ET

The first game on the slate is one of my favorite bets for the day. Shane Bieber gets the start for the Guardians, and as we have mentioned in this piece before, he is having an excellent season despite the drop in velocity. While his K-rate dropped significantly, he has also paired that with a reduction in walks. He faces a Tampa offense that has struggled a ton in 2022. Over the last thirty days, they have scored the third-fewest runs in all of baseball. After years of seemingly magically overperforming, their offense finally came back down to earth. This is a fantastic matchup for Bieber, and I expect him to pitch a clean first frame.

Shane McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in baseball and potentially the AL CY Young before he got injured. Since returning, he has struggled a bit, but he is still one of the better arms in the game. The Cleveland offense has been terrible against left-handers and has been a frequent target of mine when writing this article. Their wRC+ of 84 against southpaws is the fourth worst in baseball and easily the worst among all playoff teams. This is a really big number, but with almost all of these teams having their aces lined up to pitch today, all of the odds are a bit higher than we would like.

Pick: NRFI -185

San Diego Padres at New York Mets – 8:07 ET

New York is sending Max Scherzer out to the mound in an attempt to save Jacob deGrom for the next round. Obviously, Scherzer is no slouch in his own right. He succeeds on many strikeouts and very few walks, a perfect combination for the postseason. Over the last thirty days, the Padres have been a bottom-ten offense by runs scored. Additionally, Scherzer has allowed a 0.222 wOBA the first time through the order in 2022, which is exactly what we want to see in an NRFI bet.

Yu Darvish will be pitching for the Padres. He has had a really good 2022 season despite a drop in K-rate compared to his career, mostly on the back of walk rate improvements. In the last thirty days, the Mets have actually scored the third most runs in baseball, despite what many of their fans might be feeling. However, it definitely seems like the Mets’ offense has come up small when it mattered most, and their lack of power is a concern for the playoffs. As a result, I think Darvish can easily have a clean first inning and allow this bet to hit.

Pick: NRFI -180

Go premium to view today’s 5 Star prop bets >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.