MLB Win Totals: Best Odds & Bets for the NL (2022)
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Below I’ve listed a team from each National League division that I think will surpass or fall short of their win total set by the sportsbooks:
NL East: Washington Nationals Under 71.5 (-110, via DraftKings)
The Nationals finished in the cellar of the NL. East in 2021 with a record of 65-97. That was considered an underperforming year – especially after winning the World Series just two seasons prior. The lineup featured Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Josh Bell with a one-two punch of Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin on the mound heading into 2021. But Washington found themselves as sellers at the deadline and management threw in the towel for 2021.
Heading into 2022, Washington welcomes back Juan Soto, an all-around stud and primed for another great season. The 23-year-old outfielder is coming off a season where he slashed .313/.465/.534 and hit 29 home runs. The middle infield that was Trea Turner and Josh Harrison has departed, and Washington replaced the duo with Alcides Escobar (SS) and Cesar Hernandez (2B). That’s not nearly as exciting as having Turner lead off your lineup. One newsworthy move that the Curly W’s made was to bring in Nelson Cruz to handle the Designated Hitter responsibilities. The veteran slugger signed a one-year, $15 million contract, and he brings 449 career home runs to the lineup.
The starting rotation will be headlined by 32-year-old lefty, Patrick Corbin. Corbin’s coming off of a rough couple of seasons and isn’t nearly the threat he was during his time in Arizona or the first season with Washington. His record was 9-16 over 31 starts in 2021, and he posted a 5.88 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Behind Corbin will be Josiah Gray, Anibal Sanchez, Joshua Rogers, and Aaron Sanchez. This is not a rotation that you can feel confident about heading into an NL. East that has seen every team get better in the hitting department.
This is a three-team race between the Braves, Mets, and Phillies in the East. With the recent injuries to the Mets pitching staff, it’s looking more and more like Atlanta may win the division with ease. As for the Nationals, I expect them to finish at the bottom of the division mainly due to the lack of pitching. I’m banking on Corbin not returning to his all-star form in 2018 while the rest of the staff is volatile. There are a lot of quality hitters in the East, and they’re going to make it a miserable year for Washington. Take the Nationals to win less than 71.5 (-110) games this season.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs Over 75.5 (-110, via DraftKings)
July 30th, 2021, is a day that Cubs fans will remember for years to come. That was the day Chicago pulled the trigger and traded Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo away from the organization, and it was officially the end of an era. Chicago went on to finish fourth in the NL Central with a record of 71-91. Moving those key assets provided space for the emergence of players like Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom, who sparked optimism at the Friendly Confines moving forward.
Frank Schwindel slotted in at first base for 56 games, where he slashed .342/.389/.613, hit 13 home runs, and drove in 40 runs. Wisdom took over at the hot corner, where he played 106 games and blasted 28 long balls with 61 RBI’s. It’s a small sample size, but if those two can even come close to their 2021 outputs, the Cubs will make some noise this season. In addition to the corner infield, the Cubs signed Seiya Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract, and he’ll take over an outfield spot this year. The Japanese-born star slashed .315/.433/.636 with 38 homers last year in Japan and is the favorite to win NL. Rookie of the Year at +350. Aside from the big boppers in Schwindel, Wisdom, and Suzuki, Chicago rounds out their lineup with established bats in Wilson Contreras, Ian Happ, and Nick Madrigal.
The Cubs will look to Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman at the top of the starting rotation. Although the right-hander Henricks took a small step back in 2021, he’s been a reliable cornerstone for the Cubs staff. Over eight years with the organization, he has an ERA of 3.36 and has started 207 games. He’s healthy, dependable, and can eat up innings while limiting opposing teams. Marcus Stroman was added on a three-year, $71 million contract, and he’s coming off of a great year with the Mets. He posted a 10-13 record despite a 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and striking out 159 batters. Chicago also added Drew Smyly and Wade Miley to the rotation. Smyly had a 4.48 ERA over 23 starts with Atlanta, while Miley had a resurgent 2021 with a 3.37 ERA in Cincinnati.
The division is shaping up to be a two-team competition between the Brewers and Cardinals, while the Pirates and Reds pose no real threat to anyone. By no means do I think the Cubs will compete with Milwaukee or St. Louis for the division, but this roster is scrappy and will be able to grind out plenty of wins in 2022. Chicago is not in a full rebuild, but the front office is attempting to put a quality team on the field, which counts for something. This team should be able to clear 75.5 wins (-110).
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers Over 97.5 (-110, via DraftKings)
The Dodgers earned the second-best record in baseball in 2021, going 106-56. That still wasn’t good enough to win the NL. West as the Giants bested them by 1.0 games and claimed the division title. Los Angeles got their revenge as they beat the Giants in a five-game series in the Divisional Round. But the Dodgers fell short of their World Series aspirations, losing in six games to the Braves the following round.
It’s hard to improve a lineup that consists of Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor, and Cody Bellinger. Still, the Dodgers accomplished that when they signed Freddie Freeman to a six-year, $162 million contract. The 2020 NL. MVP slashed .300/.393/.503 with 31 home runs and 83 RBIs last season and will be a lethal addition to this lineup. We could dive into the numbers of their whole roster, but do we even need to? There are two other former MVPs in Bellinger and Betts, so I think we can leave it at that.
You don’t take much of a step back when looking at the starting rotation compared to the lineup. It’s headlined by Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Julio Urias. Kershaw has passed the torch to Buehler who has taken over the top of the rotation. The right-haner threw for a 2.47 ERA over 33 starts last season and posted a WHIP of 0.97. He’s a two-time All-Star, and in my opinion, it’s only a matter of time before he adds a Cy Young trophy to his trophy case. Two wildcards are surrounding Los Angeles in their rotation. Trevor Bauer is still on administrative leave until at least April 16th, and Dustin May is recovering from Tommy John surgery. May will likely rejoin the team in the final third of the season.
There’s no question that it’s World Series or bust for the Dodgers this season. They’re bringing back essentially the same lineup but swapping out Corey Seager for Freddie Freeman, so there’s no doubt that this offense will cause problems for the league. Their pitching staff is amongst the league’s best and will hopefully get Bauer and May back at some point. If they do, there is no question that they win 100+ games this year. I think they’re capable of slugging their way to 105 wins, let alone the contributions from the rotation. Los Angeles will be able to beat up on the Diamondbacks and Rockies for around 30 wins, and I believe they’re a step above the rebuilding Giants and up-and-coming Padres. Take the over on 97.5 wins (-110) for the Dodgers this season.
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Trenton Pruitt is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Trenton, check out his archive.