MLB World Series Home Run Props & Picks: Brewers vs. Rays (Tuesday)
Tuesday's Game 4 of the World Series could very well be the last game of the 2026 season. Either way, it will be the final Tuesday home run picks article for the year. Thank you for indulging me over the past seven months. Hopefully we can make a little extra profit before the season ends with today’s MLB World Series home run props. Here are three players I think can leave the yard in Game 4.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB World Series Home Run Props & Picks
William Contreras (+550 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
William Contreras is on the short list of World Series MVP candidates heading into Game 4. He has multiple hits in all three games while calling stellar games behind the plate. Beyond his recent hot streak, Contreras profiles well against Game 4 starter Griffin Jax.
Jax throws a sweeper or sinker nearly three-quarters of the time when facing right-handed hitters. Contreras has a .241 ISO this season against sweepers from right-handed pitchers. He also hits .361 with a .525 slugging rate against sinkers from righties. Overall, Contreras is slugging .500 with seven home runs and 16 near homers in just over 200 plate appearances against those two pitches.
While he hasn’t homered against Jax, Contreras is 2-for-4 against the right-hander, so he sees him well. It is anybody's guess how long Jax pitches in this game considering the circumstances. But I like the chances of Contreras hitting a home run on Tuesday.
Yandy Diaz (+900 at theScore Bet)
Like most Rays, Yandy Diaz has struggled offensively in this series. Diaz is just 2-for-13 through the first three games. But he has a proven track record, including favorable splits and batter-vs.-pitcher history that makes him a worthy home run candidate, especially at this price point.
Diaz hit 16 of his 22 regular-season home runs at Tropicana Field this year. He hit a home run once every 20 plate appearances at home. Tropicana Field isn’t considered a hitter's park, but it has the second-highest home run factor for right-handed batters this season.
Diaz is 3-for-4 in his career with a double against Dustin May, Milwaukee's Game 4 starter. May has struggled with the long ball this season, especially on the road. The right-hander has allowed 10 home runs in just 56.2 road innings this season.
As with Griffin Jax, we don’t know how long May will pitch in this game. But even if he faces Diaz only once or twice, this is too good a spot for me to pass up at +900.
Jonathan Aranda (+980 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jonathan Aranda is one of the few Rays who have hit the ball well during this series. He enters Tuesday's matchup 4-for-9 with a double. Like Yandy Diaz, Aranda has favorable splits and has hit well against May in limited action.
Aranda hit 13 of his 22 regular-season home runs at home. All 13 homers came against right-handed pitchers. He finished the regular season with a .543 slugging rate at home against righties. Aranda is 2-for-4 against May in his career. Both hits were doubles, including a 105.2 miles per hour (MPH) line drive earlier this season.
While May is unlikely to last long, Aranda should face mostly righties tonight. Aaron Ashby is the main high-leverage left-hander in Milwaukee's bullpen. Given Aranda's proximity to both Diaz and Junior Caminero in Tampa Bay's lineup, I don’t expect the Brewers to use any lefties outside of Ashby against the top of the lineup.
This is another cost-effective home run bet given the conditions. BetRivers has this at +650, so we're essentially getting a free 50% boost on FanDuel.