MLB World Series Picks & Predictions: Brewers vs. Rays (Monday)
World Series Game 3 between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays starts at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Brewers have jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, and the Rays will attempt to get on the board at home tonight. Tampa Bay is the favorite, but they have their work cut out for themselves. Below are my favorite MLB World Series picks for Game 3 - my last MLB picks article of the year. My best MLB bets went 31-22-2 this year, generating a profit of 6.72 units. Let’s end the year on a high note.
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Monday’s Best MLB World Series Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers (+103) at Rays (-120) | O/U 7.0 (-108/-110)
Both teams have had to rely on their bullpens so far. Jacob Misiorowski and Nick Martinez each recorded 15 outs in Game 1, and those are the starters’ high-water marks through two games.
The Rays have their back up against the wall, but most of the advantages lie with the Brewers tonight. Robert Gasser has outpitched Freddy Peralta this year in both the regular season and the playoffs.
According to FanGraphs, Gasser had a 3.87 ERA, 4.27 xERA, 4.34 xFIP and 4.14 SIERA in 20 starts and one relief appearance spanning 109.1 innings in the regular season. He has a 1.00 ERA, 5.11 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA in two playoff starts, totaling nine innings.
Meanwhile, Peralta posted a 4.42 ERA, 3.82 xERA, 4.37 xFIP and 4.32 SIERA in 32 regular-season starts spanning 169 innings. Peralta has spun a 1.08 ERA, 5.73 xFIP and 5.25 SIERA in three starts and one relief appearance in the playoffs, totaling 16.2 innings.
Both pitchers have significantly outkicked their ERA estimators in the playoffs. Peralta underperformed his ERA estimators in the regular season and was at his best with the Rays after they traded for him, but two of his three ERA estimators in the regular season were worse than Gasser’s.
Frankly, the starting pitching matchup is splitting hairs, and Peralta is better equipped to pitch deeper.
That said, the Brewers have a meaningful bullpen advantage. Milwaukee posted a 3.40 bullpen ERA in the regular season, while the Rays posted a 3.99 bullpen ERA. The Brewers also have a blistering 1.24 bullpen ERA in the playoffs, and Tampa Bay has a more ho-hum 3.62 ERA.
The offense should also tilt in the Brewers’ favor. Milwaukee’s 108 wRC+ in the postseason is 28 points higher than Tampa Bay’s 80 wRC+. The Rays should enjoy playing at home, sporting a 108 wRC+ at home in the regular season. Unfortunately, they also had just a 90 wRC+ against southpaws.
Milwaukee’s 97 wRC+ on the road was modest and 11 points lower than Tampa’s regular-season home wRC+. Still, the Brewers were tied for the MLB league lead in wRC+ against righties at 112. Ultimately, the advantages tip the scale in Milwaukee’s favor, and their plus-money Moneyline odds are too good to pass up.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+103)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.