MLB World Series Player Props & Bets: Brewers vs. Rays (Tuesday)
After dominating Game 3, the Brewers can clinch their first World Series title in franchise history tonight by beating the Rays. Below, I explain what I expect from Rays starter Griffin Jax, then highlight why you should or shouldn't trust William Contreras and Jonny DeLuca. Here are the best MLB World Series player props for Game 4 between the Brewers and Rays. Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB World Series Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Griffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Griffin Jax has pitched four or fewer innings in three straight appearances, striking out just seven batters total during that stretch. He’s struck out two or fewer batters in two of those games, and I don't like his chances of striking out many batters on a team averaging just 8.2 strikeouts per game this postseason.
In his career, Jax has allowed Brewers hitters to bat .316 against him, striking out just seven players in 38 at-bats. He's also walked six batters. While Jax has allowed just 22 hits in his last 26.2 innings, I'm worried he may get chased even earlier than usual in this game.
There are two main reasons. First, the Rays need to win, so if he struggles at all, they’ll pull him. Second, because Jax isn't a strikeout pitcher, he allows a lot of contact. That's problematic against a lineup hitting .258 this postseason. That's .020 better than any other team.
William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+139)
William Contreras has been on fire this postseason. He's hitting .419 with a .490 on-base percentage (OBP) and a .651 slugging rate. He's recorded multiple hits in three consecutive games and in six postseason games overall. Additionally, Contreras has been held hitless just twice this postseason, and he has at least two total bases in eight of his 11 games.
Contreras is 2-for-4 against Jax in his career, though he is yet to record an extra-base hit. Still, with Jax allowing five hits, including a home run, in his last appearance, and Contreras hitting well, I'm backing the hot hitter to get the better of this matchup again.
After all, Contreras has at least one hit in 22 of his last 25 games, so he's essentially halfway to hitting this prop.
Jonny DeLuca Under 0.5 Hits (+127)
Jonny DeLuca has hit safely in just one of his last seven games. He looked like he was breaking out of his slump with two hits in Game 2, but he immediately followed it up with a 0-for-3 night in Game 3. He's now hitting just .195 this postseason.
As of now, the Brewers haven't officially announced their starting pitcher, though it looks like Dustin May could get the nod. If he does, that's good news for DeLuca, as he's 2-for-2 against May in his career. However, two at-bats isn’t a large enough sample size to back a struggling hitter, especially at -167 for the over.
Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison could also start. While DeLuca has never faced Drohan, he's 0-for-2 against Harrison. But at the end of the day, the pitcher matters little. Getting +127 on DeLuca to do something he's done in six of his last seven games is too good to pass up.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.