M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 NASCAR Betting Odds, Picks & Preview (2022)
Christopher Bell secured his first win of the season last week, and he cashed an 18/1 ticket for this column in the process. The NASCAR Cup Series now heads to Pocono Raceway, nicknamed the Tricky Triangle, in the mountains of Pennsylvania. Here are our top picks for the M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400.
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Odds to Win the M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400
Best Picks for the M&M's Fan Appreciation 400
Pocono Raceway is without a true comparator track. The most similar course, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval, is no longer on the Cup Series schedule. Pocono is unique as a flat-banked, 2.5-mile track. Its triangular shape only makes it stand out that much more.
In short, Pocono is weird. That makes it harder for books and bettors to read. As a result, I plan to lean on past Pocono and Indy performances. I'm also giving considerable weight to four comparator tracks: two circuits with long straightaways, Auto Club and Circuit of the Americans, along with two circuits with flat-banked corners, Gateway and New Hampshire, to make my picks this weekend.
1. Winner: William Byron | +1200 (.25u) at FanDuel
Byron is yet to find his way to victory lane at the Tricky Triangle, but he owns the best average finish here of all active drivers at 9.1. That's better than six-time winner Denny Hamlin's average of 11.1.
We're targeting Byron because of the skill he has shown here both in the Cup Series and elsewhere. He owns two top fives and five top 10s here in Cup. He led laps in both legs of last year's double-header. Also, Byron won his lone Truck Series start here after leading more than half the race. He even won at the Indy oval in the Xfinity Series, beating Cup stars Kyle Busch and Joey Logano in the process.
Byron's performance at my highlighted comparator tracks has been hit-or-miss. He owns no top 10s in any of those events. However, he barely missed the top 10 at New Hampshire and Circuit of the Americans, and he had led 16 laps at Auto Club before getting knocked out by Tyler Reddick.
This line is a bit long for a driver who already has two wins this year. I think we're catching the books sleeping a bit with this one of our picks for the M&M's Fan Appreciation 400.
2. Longshot: Erik Jones | +6600 (.05u) at BetMGM
Byron underperformed at the four comparator tracks I named, but Jones looked fantastic. He led 18 laps at Auto Club and finished third. He then finished ninth at Circuit of the Americas and seventh at Gateway (with four laps led). His 19th-place result at New Hampshire wasn't great, but it's easy to give him a pass with odds this long.
Jones needs a win to get into the playoffs. Because of that, he and the No. 43 PettyGMS Racing team should approach Pocono aggressively. Pocono is one of Jones' better tracks. He owns five top fives in 10 starts, and he led laps in four of those events. He has finished third here three times. Jones also owns a second-place finish at the Indy oval.
Further, Jones excelled here in the Truck and Xfinity Series. He finished second here to Kyle Larson in Xfinity back in 2016, edging out Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. He finished second in the 2018 Truck Series race, trailing only Busch. We're getting some solid value by playing this line at BetMGM with other books listing Jones at +5000.
3. Matchup: Byron (-105 (1.05u) at DraftKings) vs. Chastain
We'll target Byron on a matchup market as well. DraftKings Sportsbook has him pitted against Ross Chastain, who might be the least popular driver in the garage right now. Chastain owns an impressive average finish of 11.2 along with two wins, a series-high 10 top fives, and 14 top 10s. But it'll be increasingly difficult for him to get good results against a field so antagonistic toward him due to his aggressive driving style.
Chastain finished 26th and 33rd here with Chip Ganassi Racing last season. His then-teammate, Kurt Busch, finished sixth and 20th in comparable equipment. Byron beat him in both events, too.
This line should probably have both drivers set to -110. But the books favor Chastain, and I believe that creates some value for us to exploit. Let's wager enough to profit a full unit.
4. Top 5: Erik Jones | +800 (.15u) at BetMGM
5. Top 10: Erik Jones | +200 (.5u) at DraftKings
Playing these two lines gives us an even two units of exposure split between Byron and Jones. The returns for our Jones bets would be: +5.5u if he wins, +2.15u if he scores a top five, and +0.8u if he scores a top 10. More conservative bettors can just play the top-10 line with a half unit to profit a full unit, but I like the occasional moonshot.
Jones snagged a pair of top fives in our four comparator events. He also owns five top fives and six top tens in 10 Cup starts at Pocono Raceway. Although some of the credit for those results belongs to the Joe Gibbs Racing equipment he no longer drives, Jones has the talent to succeed here.
Lastly, PettyGMS has shown speed at points this year. Jones has driven his No. 43 Chevrolet to a pair of top fives and six top 10s. He barely missed the top 10 at Nashville with an 11th-place finish. I expect a good run from him at Pocono, and these markets offer solid value. DraftKings has Jones at +600 for a top-five finish, and BetMGM has him at +160 for a top-10 result.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.