Monaco Grand Prix Formula 1 Betting Picks and Preview (2022)
The Monaco Grand Prix has run through Monte Carlo since 1929. One part of the Triple Crown of Motorsports, Monaco is Formula One’s most prestigious event of the year. The 3.3-kilometer (2.1 mile) circuit features tight hairpin turns along narrow city streets. Veteran Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton owns the fastest lap on its current configuration at 1:12.909, which he ran in a losing effort last season.
Red Bull driver Max Verstappen won the 2021 Monaco Grand Prix, ahead of Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz and McLaren driver Lando Norris. Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc, who grew up in Monaco, had won the pole for the event but then crashed out during Saturday’s qualifying session.
Leclerc’s speed, both here last year and earlier this season, has made him the early favorite to win the 2022 Monaco Grand Prix. Value exists outside of the outright markets, too.
Check out the rest of our Memorial Day Weekend motorsports coverage >>
Odds to Win the Monaco GP
Best Bets for the Monaco GP
Since Formula One doesn't visit the same circuit twice in a season, we'll focus on the results at tracks similar to Monaco. Motorsports analysts and drivers alike often compare the track's slow speed corners to the final sector at Barcelona, where Ferrari performed best this season. Although Red Bull's Max Verstappen won the event, he only did so after Ferrari's Charles Leclerc lost power and had to retire from the event.
1. Pole Winner: Charles Leclerc | -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Last year's pole winner has shown the most speed this season and had the best car at Barcelona. Ferrari's top driver has four poles already this season, and he earned the first starting position for both of the last two races. He owns only one Monaco pole in three tries, but that's more than his main competition, Verstappen, Sainz, and Sergio Perez.
You'll need to lock this prop in before qualifying starts on Saturday. We'll target the line at FanDuel Sportsbook because they have mispriced this one slightly—Leclerc is a -125 favorite for the pole at DraftKings and a -110 favorite at BetMGM. Let's take the extra bit of value at FanDuel before it disappears.
2. Race Winner: Charles Leclerc | +100 at BetMGM
We'll bet on Leclerc to break the curse and get his first Monaco victory. Leclerc won two of the first three races of this season before a disappointing sixth-place result at Imola. He then finished second in Miami before retiring in Barcelona.
Leclerc's performance on street circuits is encouraging. He finished second in Saudi Arabia, first in Australia, and second in Miami. He lost both races to Max Verstappen, the next most-favored driver, but Monaco's especially slow corners lend themselves better to Ferrari than Red Bull.
Ferrari's best lap, which Leclerc ran, was 0.08 seconds faster than Red Bull's in Barcelona's final sector during qualifying. That isn't a huge gap, but it's a meaningful one since almost all of Monaco's corners will force drivers to slow down significantly. Verstappen has proven more here—he won last year's race, after all—but only three drivers have won at Monaco in consecutive years since Ayrton Senna's last win in 1993: Michael Schumacher, Fernando Alonso, and Nico Rosberg.
3. Top 6 Finish: Valterri Bottas | -160 (1.6u) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Bottas and Alfa Romeo don't have the speed to win, but they have produced consistent enough results to warrant targeting Bottas with a big play here. Bottas already owns three top-six results this season, and he has finished no worse than eighth, aside from his DNF in Saudi Arabia.
We've seen Bottas achieve similar results at Monaco in the past. The former Mercedes driver finished no worse than fifth here for his old team, aside from his DNF last year.
But Alfa Romeo's surprising speed in Barcelona's final sector is the best reason to target Bottas here. Bottas' team-best performance ranked Alfa Romeo third overall in the sector, ahead of fourth-ranked Haas by .118 seconds and ahead of fifth-ranked Mercedes by .255 seconds. For some perspective, Bottas' performance only trailed first-ranked Leclerc by .107 seconds.
Bottas need not finish ahead of any Ferrari or Red Bull driver to cash this bet. Instead, he need only beat the same mid-pack drivers we've seen him race well against all season, and he'll have a competitive advantage to help him do so. Bolder bettors may use their remaining .4u on Bottas to record a podium (+550 at FanDuel Sportsbook), but I prefer another option.
4. Double Top 10 Finish: Alfa Romeo | +275 (.4u) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Let's sprinkle the remaining .4u from the above play for a longshot bet. We'll need both Bottas and his teammate, Zhou Guanyu, to finish in the top half of the field on Sunday. They have already done it once this season, back at the opening race in Bahrain, and they came close to doing it again in Australia.
The argument for targeting both Alfa Romeo drivers stems from the speed they showed in Barcelona's final sector. Bottas ranked fourth and Zhou ranked 11th. Zhou may need some help from an accident or a savvy strategy call to earn a top-10 result, but we're getting some decent value by playing this team combo line. Zhou himself is +200 to record a top-10 but Bottas is -360. That extra +75 is worth the risk of Bottas retiring or underperforming.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.