Murphy vs. Pico UFC 319 Picks & Predictions
UFC 319 is set for Saturday night in Chicago, Illinois, and all roads lead to a middleweight title fight between Dricus Du Plessis (champion) and Khamzat Chimaev (No. 3). Check out my full breakdown and betting analysis for the main event here. In this article, I'm diving into three other main card bouts from a sports betting perspective. Here are my top UFC 319 main card bets for Murphy vs. Pico.
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UFC 319 Main Card Picks: Murphy vs. Pico
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico
Let's pick it up in the co-main event, which features a featherweight showdown between Lerone Murphy (No. 6) and Aaron Pico. Murphy, who's undefeated (16-0-1), finds himself as a sizable underdog against the debuting Pico. The former Bellator brawler has posted a professional record of 13-4-0.
In my opinion, this line is a bit lofty in favor of Pico. There's value in backing Murphy, and I'm going to ride with him at +145 on the Moneyline. Now, just because the line's off doesn't mean we should automatically bet it. There needs to be a route to victory for the underdog, and in this case, I believe there is.
Pico's a wrestler. He's going to try and take this fight to the canvas. He may find success early, but I don't think he'll manage to keep the lengthy Englishman on the ground for too long and dominate the fight. Murphy owns a respectable 52% takedown defense rate. If he can avoid getting ragdolled, he'll have the edge on the feet. He has a two-inch reach advantage (73 inches vs. 71 inches) and boasts an excellent 61% strike defense rate. Murphy's a smart fighter and doesn't put himself in compromising positions. He's battle-tested, and I like him to stay undefeated against the UFC newcomer.
Bet: Lerone Murphy Moneyline (+145)