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NASCAR at New Hampshire: 2023 Crayon 301 Odds, Picks & Predictions

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I used to think I was an outlier, one of the few northern NASCAR fans.

Little did I know, there are hundreds of thousands just like me – living on the edge of every turn, shift and checkered flag. Finding this NASCAR betting community has shown me just that. We’re everywhere, even if you don’t see it at first glance. Some of the biggest NASCAR fans and best NASCAR betting analysts could live right down the street, even here in the Northeast US.

Stock car racing’s premiere series returns north this weekend as drivers will battle it out in Loudon, N.H. Yes, those little, quaint New England towns will be woken up by the sound of engines and their local rednecks carrying on. It also re-awakens NASCAR bettors with one of the more predictable tracks on the circuit.

Here are the data sets we’re considering this week for one of the unique shorter flat tracks:

  • 2023 Phoenix (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Richmond (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Gateway (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2022 New Hampshire (finishes, green flag speed*, speed late in a run* & total speed rankings*)
  • Driver track history
  • Track trends
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

With that covered and our tires pointed north, let’s get on the road for my Crayon 301 best bets.

2023 Crayon 301: NASCAR at New Hampshire Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Both To Finish Top 10: Brad Keselowski & Kevin Harvick (+450 via Caesars Sportsbook)

If it wasn’t for the rain last weekend, Brad Keselowski very well leaves Atlanta with his first victory of the season and first since jumping ship to Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing. Yet, here he is, still trying to punch a ticket to the postseason. His No. 6 car has been running well, with an average finish of 11 over the last three races on ovals.

He has also run well at two of the three shorter flat tracks this season. Keselowski had a top-eight total speed ranking at Phoenix and a top-nine total speed ranking at Richmond. He finished seventh here a year ago in what was a disastrous season for the new race team. Kesewloski’s operation and head space has improved tenfold since then. I think he’s vying for a win at the end of this one.

What more can you say about Kevin Harvick coming to New Hampshire? Harvick has the second-best total speed ranking across the shorter flats this season (5.0). He also finished fifth in this race last season, posting a top-four total speed ranking and green flag speed on the day. Harvick is always live to win here. The option to parlay the No. 4 car with Keselowski to finish with a T10 is a gift from the gambling gods. Let’s chase the big payday.

Top 10: Ross Chastain (-110 via Barstool Sportsbook)

It was announced this week that “The Melon Man” will now be the main man for Busch Light following Harvick’s retirement. Ross Chastain should carry that momentum into Sunday. He has been top 10 in total speed rankings across the shorter flat tracks this season (8.7). He finished third at our comp track of Richmond. And while he didn’t have great finishes at Phoenix or Gateway, he qualified inside the top 10 and had a top-11 total speed ranking in both of those races. Chastain finished eighth at New Hampshire last season. With momentum from a recent win and the new sponsorship on his side, he should be a contender come Sunday.

Matchup: Chris Buescher (-135) vs. Ryan Preece (+105) via Caesars Sportsbook

New Hampshire isn’t Chris Buescher’s best track. Still, Buescher finished 17th in this race last season and has had a total speed ranking of 16th (16.3) across the shorter flat tracks this year. In addition, teammate and car owner Keselowski was the Ford representative to test the new package here. So the RFK camp should have a leg up on the competition. More than anything, I trust the No. 17 car’s consistency, as he has an average finish of 9.7 over his last seven races.

Meanwhile, Ryan Preece joins Noah Gragson and Ty Dillon as the only full-time Cup Series drivers without a T10 this year. Even worse, Preece didn’t race here last season, meaning he’s never touched Loudon in NASCAR’s Next-Gen car. With a total speed ranking of 22nd across the shorter flat tracks in his return to the Cup Series this year, it only makes sense to fade the No. 41 car.

Other Bets on My Card:

  • Brad Keselowski Outright (+2000 via Barstool Sportsbook)
  • Kevin Harvick Outright (+1000 via Barstool Sportsbook)
  • Daniel Suarez (+120 via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. Bubba Wallace

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.