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NBA Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/19)

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Here are our favorite picks from today’s NBA slate of games.

Here are our other best bets for Thursday:

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Today’s Best NBA Bets

Let’s dive into a pair of games we like on Thursday and the best bet for each.

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics

 

It’s a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals as the Golden State Warriors visit the Boston Celtics for a highly anticipated inter-conference bout. Not only did the Warriors get the better of Boston in the ’22 Finals, but they again thwarted the Celtics earlier this season. However, we anticipate the Celtics to even the season series tonight in Beantown.

Boston has stood atop the Eastern Conference all year, and are consensus favorites to hoist Larry O’Brien Trophy at the season’s end. Their efficiency ratings are off the charts, and advanced metrics rate them as the NBA’s best team by a fair margin. Furthermore, aside from a three-game losing streak in mid-December, Boston has been particularly exceptional at home– covering the spread at a rate of 68.4%.

Conversely, the Warriors have underperformed in their title defense. Golden State has defended their home court admirably (17-5 SU), but they’ve been putrid on the road (5-17 SU, 6-16 ATS), and the return of Steph Curry is not reason enough to back them in Boston. Also, the Warriors have an otherwise extensive injury report ahead of tonight’s game. Golden State will likely be without Andre Iguodala, Jonathan Kuminga, JaMychal Green, and James Wiseman tonight, and although these players don’t rate among their best, such absences will be detrimental to their frontcourt rotation.

Bet: Celtics -5 (-110)

Bonus Bet!– Because the Warriors are going to be so thin in the frontcourt, we’re going to take a piece of the Over as well. Golden State will be forced to play small ball for much of this game, inclining them to push the pace even more than usual (Warriors already rank first in the NBA in PACE), and hindering them defensively.

Lean: Over 236 (-110)

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

 

We’re not particularly inclined to bet on either of these teams right now, but we’ll side with the Raptors for our Thursday nightcap. Choose a metric: Adjusted Net Rating, Offensive/Defensive Efficiency, Pts/Poss, etc.– you will likely find Toronto to be rated higher than the Timberwolves. It’s generally good practice to bet on better teams, and that’s exactly what we’ll do with the Raptors, despite their road woes this season (6-14 SU).

The discerning factors here are injuries and fatigue. The Raptors boast a clean injury report (sans Otto Porter Jr., whom’s season ended in December), whereas the Wolves’ report is extensive. Additionally, Minnesota will have the disadvantage of playing the tail-end of a back-to-back after visiting Denver on Wednesday night. Take the Raptors, and trust this number to move in their direction.

Bet: Raptors -2.5 (-110)

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