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NBA Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (Celtics vs. Heat)

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Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for Thursday’s Game 5 between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat. Can the Celtics stay alive, or will the Heat advance to the NBA Finals? Let’s dive into Thursday’s NBA Playoff action.

Thursday’s Best NBA Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

The Celtics got up off of the mat in Game 4, and they should keep the momentum rolling on their home floor.

I get it. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit in the history of the NBA Playoffs (and I’m not necessarily endorsing Boston to do so), but these Celtics do not fit the profile of the typical team on the verge of losing the series. By many metrics, Boston was the NBA’s best team this year, rating first in Adjusted Net Rating and Pts/Poss differential in the regular season. And, once again, in Game 4, they looked like that same team.

Their underperformance in these playoffs is legit, and they are clearly at a disadvantage on the coaching front. But, the talent gap between these two teams is inarguable. Miami has been playing well above their means thus far in the postseason, improving greatly on their season-long offensive ratings.

During the regular season, the Heat ranked 25th in Offensive Pts/Poss (113.3), 25th in eFG% (53.1%), and 27th in 3P% (34.4%). This postseason, their metrics would slot them 7th in Offensive Pts/Poss (117.1), tied 11th in eFG% (55.3%), and 4th in 3P% (38%)… all despite losing their third-leading scorer and best 3P shooter in Tyler Herro.

I’ve watched enough of Miami these playoffs to recognize how well they’re playing, but to play this far above their demonstrated ability during the regular season is ridiculous. There is certainly some degree of variance attributed to the Heat’s magical run, and the Celtics have re-secured momentum as these teams return to TD Garden for Game 5.

Boston had their chances to both win and cover on their home floor early in the series. Look for them to capitalize on this opportunity Thursday night.

Bet: Celtics -8 (-110)

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


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