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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (1/15)

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The Sunday NBA slate gives us eight matchups to watch. Let’s take a look at my favorite plays of the day.

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All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (1/15)

New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons

This Sunday matinee takes center stage with the Knicks traveling to Detroit to take on the Pistons. This has quietly turned into one of the most lopsided matchups in the NBA over the last four seasons. The Knicks are currently on an 11-game winning streak against Detroit, going 9-2 ATS, covering by an average of 10.7 points.

Given the full-season performance, the line could be considered a little long, but recent results indicate this probably isn’t long enough. The Knicks have been playing well, going 6-1 in their last seven games. They’ve also been exceptional on the road going 13-8 on the season with a fabulous 15-6 ATS record. With all of this success, they’ve moved their way up the adjusted net rating rankings, performing like a top-eight team in the league.

One reason they’ve been so good is their ability to crash the boards. Their offensive rebounding percentage is one of the best in the league. This helps mask an eFG% that isn’t one of the better ones in the league. Going up against a Piston team that is near the bottom of the league in defensive rebounding percentage points to a huge advantage for New York. Take into account that the Pistons’ big men Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren could both possibly miss more time here, and the Knicks could eat under the basket all day.

This is just another bad spot for Detroit, and the Knicks should look to extend their hot streak against them to 10-2 ATS.

Pick: Knicks -7.5 (-110)

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers

Two of the coldest teams in the league square off on Sunday. The Rockets are in the midst of a nine-game losing streak and have had very few close matchups. The Clippers have only won one of their last eight games and just cannot seem to get healthy. It’s starting to feel like another lost season for both of these franchises.

In this game, neither side is one I feel comfortable backing; however, I like the under. The line is being set at 222 even though these are the 29th and 30th-ranked adjust offenses in the league. In addition to this, Los Angeles plays one of the slowest paces in the league, a product of an aging roster. Houston likes to play a little faster, but even this young team plays at the 17th-ranked pace in the league, below league average. Two bad offenses playing at such a slow place scream under, even though Houston’s defense is suspect.

Houston will struggle mightily to score. The Clippers allow some of the worst shot efficiency at all levels, and Houston is one of the least efficient shooting teams at all levels, unsurprising for such a young team. The Rocket side should keep us well under, so even if we get a hot shooting game from the Clippers, we should still go under. However, there is little the Clippers have done recently to show that is likely.

This is just a number that is much too high for two bad offensive teams. Throwing in that these teams should play at a slow pace, and both have been terrible in recent weeks, makes this one of my favorite plays of Sunday.

Pick: Total u222 (-110)

Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets

The Magic finish a five-game western road trip with a visit to Denver to take on the Nuggets. This spot intersects two of my favorite trend plays: unders in the last game of long road trips and unders in Denver.

After four straight road games, the Magic offense is headed for a rough night. The last game of the road trip is where those tired legs really start setting in. The shots don’t fall as well, and that’s more of a problem for a young team like Orlando that hasn’t had as much experience handling these road trip situations. Orlando already holds the 26th-ranked adjusted offensive rating, so it’s not like they’re juggernauts in normal situations. This just lends itself to an under lean.

The Denver edge is interesting too. Unders continue to hit for a great Nugget offense, now 7-13-1 to the under at home on the season. It’s easy to see why. Denver has a great offense, 2nd in offensive rating in the league, leading to big total lines, especially at home. However, Denver is a tough road spot for teams that only travel there once or twice a season due to altitude concerns. So long as the totals continue to be overpriced in Denver, it’s smart to look to the under, which I will do again on Sunday.

Pick: Total u233.5 (-110)

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