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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (1/29)

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After a loaded Saturday slate we only have four games on the NBA schedule for Sunday. The smaller slate still provides great opportunity for some best bets. Let’s take a look and see what kind of edges we can find.

Season to Date: 16-17-2, -3.05 units

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Today’s Best NBA Bets

Here are my top picks for Sunday’s slate of NBA action.

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis returns home after a road trip that went about as poorly as one could go. The Grizzlies went 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in the five game west coast trip. The main issue was that the defense did not travel well. They gave up 120 points per game on the trip, decidedly worse than the 112.5 they’ve given up on the season.

Memphis has been a different team at home on the year. They have been 14-8-1 ATS at the FedEx Forum, a far cry from the 9-16-1 on the road. This is a perfect spot for Memphis to get right against a Pacer team that is having its own defensive struggles. Indiana has given up 124.3 points per game in the midst of a 1-9 stretch that included a 130-112 loss to the Grizzlies in Indianapolis.

The Grizzlies have been one of the best teams in the league at defending inside the arc. This works well for them against a Pacer team that is one of the worst teams in the league at 2-point efficiency. Without easy opportunities inside the arc the Pacers could find themselves hoisting threes just to keep up with the Grizzlies.

Memphis should have no problem scoring in their return home and the Pacers could struggle without Tyrese Halliburton in the lineup again. The strong home court advantage in Memphis should get them on the right track and look like the team we’ve seen all season.

Pick: 1.1u on Grizzlies -9.5 (-110)

New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks

The Pelicans have been on a slide with Zion Williamson out of the lineup. They welcomed back Brandon Ingram this week although the results have yet to turn around. Milwaukee got their stars back this week too. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton returned and the Bucks immediately ran off 132.7 points per game in three contests. Two of those games included 150 and 141 point outputs against two of the worst defenses in the league in Detroit and Indiana.

Even during this cold spell for New Orleans the defense has been playing at a competitive level. Adding Ingram back into the lineup will only improve this unit. A top defensive unit should slow Milwaukee down, even at near full strength like we’ll see Sunday. The Pelicans have had one of the best 3-point defenses and the Bucks have been somewhat reliant on getting up 3-point shots, the fifth highest 3-point rate in the league. This could lead to a long day for the Milwaukee offense.

As the Pelicans get closer to full strength the offense should continue to improve as well. This line is just too large for where these teams actually are and too reactionary to recent results. With Zion we’d be looking at closer to a two or three point spread. Obviously, he won’t be there on Sunday, but the Pelicans are still good enough to cover a spread like this.

Pick: 1.1u on Pelicans +10 (-110)

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