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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (1/8)

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The Sunday NBA schedule is full of great matchups. There are nine games to whet any fan’s appetite. So let’s take a look at some of my favorite plays for the slate.

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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (1/8)

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers

The Pacers and Hornets matchup in this game where the line doesn’t seem right. The Pacers have been playing well above their expectations, currently sitting at the 7th seed in the Eastern conference.

On the other side of the coin, the Hornets sit 27th in adjusted net ratings, due mainly to a 29th ranked adjusted offensive rating. Lamelo Ball has missed significant time and perhaps the full season rating isn’t indicative of what this offense can be at full strength, but this team is still worse than the Pacers.

The Hornets have the league worst eFG% in the league and with a 24th ranked FT rate, it’s a recipe for poor offensive output. The Pacers are no juggarnaut defensively but they’re in the top half of the league in defensive eFG%, and one of the best teams in the league at creating turnovers which can be a problem for Charlotte with Ball handling the ball.

The Pacers should win this game at home with some comfort. I’ll take Indiana here at the current price of -5.

Pick: Pacers -5 (-110)

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat

This is one of the highest profile matchups of the day as Kevin Durant leads the Nets in South Beach against the Heat. After a rough start to the season, the Heat are on a bit of a tear in recent weeks, finishing a west coast road trip. This is the first game back in Miami for the Heat and that triggers one of my favorite spots to play.

Teams on their first game back after a long road trip tend to go to the over. Getting back in front of the home crowd can rejuvenate a team on the offensive end, give them a little bit of a boost. On the defensive end the tired legs from all the travel can still be a factor. To play an offense like Brooklyn’s will be an issue. Their fourth ranked adjusted offensive should have a field day in this game.

Heat home trends also point to an over here. Overs are 11-8 at home games in Miami. A lower total due to some offensive woes and a solid defense front the Heat can be negated by the spot. If Brooklyn gets going with their league best eFG% this one should have no problem going over. 

Pick: Total o222 (-110)

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

The Mavericks play the second night of a back to back in Oklahoma City against the Thunder. Trends for the Mavericks point to an over on the game total. In seven games on the second night of a back to back, Dallas is 6-1 to the over, 4-0 on the road. This trend also coincides with a 14-7 record for Thunder home games this season.

One factor I really like for Dallas on offense is that OKC is a poor defensive rebounding team, ranking dead last in defensive rebounding percentage. Even if the shots aren’t falling because of the back to back spot, they’ll get plenty of opportunities to get second chance points. If the shots are falling, like they do often with a seventh ranked eFG%, this game should have no issue going over.

Dallas’s defense has been around league average as far as defensive rating, but they’ve been giving up over 117 points per game in their last five contests. The Thunder have shown this week that their offense can be explosive as anyones with a 150 point outburst against Boston on Tuesday. I expect them to be able to continue this offensive output and do their part to contribute to the over.

This is a great spot to take the over and I’m not going to pass up on that opportunity.

Pick: Total o227 (-112)

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