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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (11/13)

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There are seven games on the schedule for Sunday in the NBA. Let’s take a look at some of my best bets for the slate.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers return home after a west coast road trip that saw them go 1-3 both straight up and ATS. They’ll take on a Minnesota team that has disappointed out of the gate. The Cavs have been one of the best defensive teams in the league led by Mobley and Allen down low but given the spot, I’m looking at the over as one of my best bets.

Coming off of a five-game road trip, with four on the west coast, there will be some tired legs. Where that often hurts you the most is on the defensive end. 

Although Minnesota has been poor on the offensive end, ranking 24th in adjusted offensive rating, they will be able to put up points on a Cleveland team in a bad spot. Minnesota is also one of the few teams that can match up with the size of the lineups Cleveland will put out.

Minnesota has been a poor team defensively on the season on their own, allowing 114 or more points in each game in November. In addition, Cleveland has gone 7-5 to the over and 3-1 to the over at home. I like these trends to continue here.

Pick: Total O227

Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls

The Nuggets will finish up a four-game road trip in Chicago against the Bulls. Denver has been strong offensively after plugging Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back into a lineup that missed them last season. They’ve excelled due to an eFG% that ranks 2nd in the league. Most nights this will be enough to put up a ton of points, but not Sunday.

The Bulls enter this matchup with a strong defensive unit. They rank 3rd in adjusted defensive rating. They’ve done well to grab defensive rebounds and create turnovers. More importantly, they’ve trended to the under on the season at 8-5. That is where this best bet is going.

Teams, like Denver, historically tend to go under in the final game of a road trip. Going up against a solid defensive team like Chicago, and a total hovering at 231, I like this one to stay with the trends and go under as well.

Pick: Total U231

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings

Two of the best shooting teams, by eFG%, square off Sunday night in Sacramento. The Warriors have dazzled offensively for the better part of a decade and have shown no signs of stopping. Their offensive rating has dipped surprisingly in the early season, but they’ve shown enough flashes of the team that won the title last year to know that it’s still in there somewhere.

Sacramento has busted out of the gates with a strong offense themselves. Their offensive rating ranks 3rd in the league, led by De’Aaron Fox who has improved his shooting efficiency greatly this year. To pair with a great offense, the Kings are playing the same brand of defense they’ve become known for the last few years, which is to say a near league worst.

The Kings have actually only gone 5-6 to the over on the season but they also are routinely having totals set in the high 220s and 230s due to their defensive prowess. This total is set at 234.5 which may seem like a lot with a team like the Warriors, but their defense has underwhelmed this year as well. In a matchup between the two early on in the year, the final total was 255. I expect more of the same in this matchup and the over is one of my best bets.

Pick: Total O234

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