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NBA Finals Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (Nuggets vs. Heat)

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Sunday brings us Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets will look to take a 2-0 lead before the series heads back to Miami, but the Heat have been poised all playoffs to play spoiler. A rough Game 1 both offensively and defensively for Miami was to be expected after a grueling seven-game series with Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. With a little more rest, and more time to get used to the Denver elevation, Miami will look to bounce back and tie the series up. Here are my best bets for Game 2.

Season to Date: 36-36-2, -3.90 units

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Sunday’s Best NBA Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets

In Game 1, Denver got off to a blazing start, winning the quarter 29-20. It was very clear from the beginning that the Heat had no answer for Nikola Jokic. The two-time MVP barely filled up the points column on the box score but was able to dish out assists at will, running the offense from the top of the key and feeding Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray. 

Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the league and if there is anyone who is able to make the adjustments to slow down Jokic, it’s him. However, I don’t think there is really anything Miami can do. The size of Denver, especially the starting unit, is something that Miami cannot compete with. Whether they try to take away Jokic’s passing lanes or open shots, he’s going to have one of the two to play with.

I love the Nuggets to get off to another hot start as Jokic has averaged 11:07 of floor time in the first quarter during the playoffs, including the full 12:00 in five of the last ten. The Nuggets were +14 in Jokic minutes in Game 1 and I expect that trend to continue. I like the Nuggets to cover the first quarter spread.

Pick: 1.1u on Nuggets -2.5 1Q (-110)

Game 1 of this series was played at a glacial pace of 91 possessions. During the regular season, these were two of the slower teams, but Denver and Miami averaged 98.5 and 96.3 possessions per game, respectively. With a little more time to be acclimated to the Denver atmosphere and more time to recover from Game 7 in Boston, the Heat will ramp up their pace a bit. Denver should play a little faster too. After taking a big lead, Denver slowed down in the second half, taking their foot off the gas. I don’t think that will be the case for Game 2.

Miami should have more success on offense Sunday night. In Game 1, Miami attempted only two free throws. The whole team has made it well known that they’re going to look to get to the line more often in Game 2. In addition, the Heat shot poorly on two-point attempts which can be attributed to some tired legs. I also don’t expect sharpshooters Max Strus and Duncan Robinson to combine 1 for 14 from the three-point arch.

On the Denver side, we should see some improved three-point shooting as well. With a faster pace, more free throws, and improved shooting, this game looks like the perfect recipe for an over.

Pick: 1.1u on Total o216 (-110)

It’s no secret that the Heat have been phenomenal against the spread during the postseason. They’ve been 13-6 ATS including a 7-4 mark on the road. A woeful performance through three quarters on Thursday still nearly led to a Miami cover. They opened up the fourth quarter on an 11-0 run. This isn’t a surprise as the Heat have been really good in the second half of games this postseason, making close games out of contests that looked dead.

The poor performance Miami’s offense put up for most of Game 1 should be improved on Sunday. Even in a game where Denver dominated, they struggled to really put this Miami team away. This is a trend we’ve seen throughout the playoffs as Denver only has six double-digit wins in their 13 victories so far.

The Heat are still unlikely to win, but given past performances, a more than likely improved offensive performance, and necessary defensive adjustments, I love their chances to cover this number in Game 2.

Pick: 1.1u on Miami +8.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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