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NBA Finals Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (Heat vs. Nuggets)

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The NBA Finals have finally arrived! Here’s how I’m betting on Game 1.

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Thursday’s Best NBA Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

Those of us betting against the Heat have lost a pretty penny this postseason, and this number (Heat +9) is surely an enticing one… but it is difficult to endorse anything other than the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Situationally, it does not get any better than this for the Nuggets. It’s been 10 days since Denver last took the floor, and their injury report is bare. Conversely, the Heat return to the court after an exhaustive seven-game series, and their best player, Jimmy Butler, is still on the mend. Additionally, Denver has been exceptional at home this season, logging a 30-18-1 ATS record and 42-7 SU record on their home floor to this point. Assume an even greater home-court advantage as their crowd anticipates the franchise’s first-ever NBA Finals game.

In terms of the matchup, Denver should have a significant edge as well. The question of this Game 1 is whether or not the Heat can stall the Nuggets on the offensive end, and one is quite skeptical that they’ll be able to do so. Miami’s calling card has been their employment of the zone defense, yet the Nuggets don’t profile as a team you’d want to play zone against. Denver C Nikola Jokic is the prototype big man to have for such a defense, and if the Nuggets’ supporting cast finds the bottom of the net from deep, Miami may have to rethink their strategy moving forward.

It is both a tough situation and matchup for the Miami Heat and though the Heat has burned their detractors thus far this postseason, one shouldn’t hesitate to fade them in this spot.

Bet: Nuggets -9 (-110)

Also make sure to check out the rest of Thursday’s best bets: