NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Friday (Heat vs. Nuggets)

The Nuggets regained homecourt advantage by taking Game 3 in Miami. Following Game 2, Nuggets’ head coach Michael Malone didn’t hold back during the press conference calling out the team’s lack of effort in that loss. They made a note and brought it to South Beach. They’ll look to sweep in Miami and get one game closer to their first championship.

Friday’s NBA Finals Best Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Denver Nuggets (-162) at Miami Heat (+136) | O/U 211 (-110/-110)

Triple-doubles are nothing new to Nikola Jokic, and this was his tenth one in the playoffs. In Game 2, we saw the Heat play a lot of Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt together, and it took away Jokic’s ability to kick the ball out, which limited their perimeter shooting.

Denver improved in controlling the ball from the perimeter, allowing Jamal Murray to shine. He’s excelled throughout the playoffs, leading to his own triple-double.

This was the first time in NBA history that two teammates had 30-point triple-doubles.

The Heat have persevered throughout the playoffs, but you have to wonder if they can catch lightning in a bottle again. This series could easily be 3-0 if the Nuggets didn’t blow a 15-point lead in Game 2, and even then, they had a last chance to send it into overtime.

Miami’s defense does a great job at limiting their opponent’s shots while trying volume shooting on offense. In Game 2, they excelled from three by going 17-for-35, which dropped to 11-for-35 in Game 3.

One part where they need to get better is in the paint. The Nuggets have a staggering +52 advantage with points in the paint, and it’s proving detrimental. Bam Adebayo is an exceptional center, and he’s played well by averaging 23 points and 13 rebounds in this series, but we’re seeing a large gap between him and Jokic. The Heat are scoring in the paint, but they need to limit Denver’s shots down low.

That’s a task no one has figured out, and it won’t magically happen tonight. The Nuggets aren’t shooting as much as the Heat, but they’re more efficient by shooting 50% from the floor. The significant advantage down low is hard to ignore, especially when Miami has struggled from long range in two of the games in this series.

Look for Denver to get within a win of their first NBA Title.

Pick: Nuggets -3.5 (-110)

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