NBA Finals Picks & Predictions: Knicks vs. Spurs (Game 1)
The NBA Finals begin tonight, and I'm breaking down three of my best bets for Game 1 between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs. Below, I highlight one area where Jalen Brunson has the edge over Victor Wembanyama, why I expect this to be a low-scoring game and who I believe has the advantage from beyond the 3-point line. Here are the best NBA Finals picks for Game 1.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Finals Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson More Points Than Victor Wembanyama (+111)
Victor Wembanyama is technically averaging 23.2 points per game in the postseason, but he played 12 or fewer minutes twice due to injury. If we remove those games, his average jumps up to 25.7 points per game. Still, Brunson has him beat, averaging 26.9 points per contest.
However, my reasoning for this prop comes down to much more than averages. Brunson has simply been a more consistent scorer this postseason. Brunson has scored at least 22 points in 10 of his 14 games. He's reached 30 points five times, and his high this postseason is 38.
While Wembanyama was excellent against the Thunder, averaging 27.3 points per game, he still has 21 or fewer points in six of the 15 games in which he played at least 20 minutes. While he's scored 39 and 41, Wembanyama only reached 30 points four times this postseason.
Though it’s not much, Brunson averaged one more point per game than Wembanyama this season. Wembanyama outscored Brunson in two of the three meetings between these two teams this season.
However, Wembanyama never scored more than two points more than Brunson, and Brunson actually scored more against the Spurs this season than Wembanyama did against the Knicks. Getting Brunson as an underdog with so much going in his favor makes this a must-bet.
Under 218.5 Points (-110)
These two teams played two really high-scoring games this season, while the third meeting featured just 203 points. And while the Knicks are averaging 119.9 points per game to lead all postseason teams, and the Spurs rank third with 115.3, the defenses have been the story thus far.
The Knicks are allowing just 100.6 points per game in the playoffs. Whether it's because of their competition or not, holding NBA opponents to under 101 points per game through 14 contests is unbelievable in 2026.
They've allowed more than 110 points once this postseason, and that was a game where they still won by 30. In all, they've held opponents below 100 points in seven postseason games.
But the Spurs have been excellent defensively as well. They're allowing just 105 points per game through 18 postseason contests. They held the Thunder to 103 or fewer points in three of their seven Western Conference Finals games, and in the game where the Thunder scored 115, they had only 101 points at the end of regulation.
The Knicks have already held the Spurs to 89 points this season. Even if one offense shows up, the two teams will combine for a low total.
Knicks to Make the Most 3-Pointers (-140)
For my last play, I'm taking the Knicks to make more three-pointers than the Spurs, even though the price isn't great. While -140 is more expensive than I would generally recommend, the Knicks truly outperform the Spurs in every phase from beyond the arc.
The Knicks are averaging more three-pointers per game this postseason, though they hold only a slight edge, making 13.1 per game to the Spurs’ 12.9. Otherwise, the Knicks dominate. They're knocking down 40% of their three-point attempts in the postseason, while the Spurs are shooting 36.5% from deep.
That number from the Spurs is respectable, but the Knicks have a better chance of continuing their hot shooting. They ranked fourth in the league in three-point rate during the regular season, while the Spurs ranked just 15th.
And in the playoffs, the Knicks have clamped down defensively around the arc. They're holding opponents to just 30.5% shooting from deep, allowing them to make only 11.2 three-pointers per game. The Spurs are allowing 11.7 three-pointers per game and a 32.9% three-point shooting rate.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.