NBA Finals Picks & Predictions: Sunday (Pacers vs. Thunder)
Game 1 of the NBA Finals was a shocking result as the Indiana Pacers came back in the fourth quarter to steal a 1-0 series lead. The Thunder will look to rebound at home, a place they've been very successful in the playoffs. Let's take a deeper look at the matchup and find some NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Game 2.
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Best NBA Picks: Finals Game 2
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
The loss on Thursday was the 10th home game of the Playoffs for the Thunder. It dropped them to 7-3 against the spread (ATS) this postseason. A very strong mark even for a team that went 54-25-3 during the regular season ATS. The seven covers all follow a simple trend: Blowouts.
In their ATS wins this postseason, Oklahoma City has averaged a -10 spread. Not only have they managed to win these games all by double digits, they've done it convincingly, averaging a 30.4-point margin of victory. Following a home ATS loss in the Playoffs, they've been locked in during the following game in Paycom Center, going 2-0 ATS with a 38-point average margin of victory.
In Game 1, Oklahoma City led by as much as 15 with 9:27 to go in the fourth quarter. Indiana's offense was uncomfortable. The Pacers would go 11-for-19 down the stretch after shooting 44.4% from the field up until that point. Oklahoma City was the best defensive team in the league all season with the top-ranked defensive rating. They allowed a league-low 51.3 effective field goal rate (eFG%), nearly a full percentage point ahead of number two. I expect them not to lose focus and show that for a full 48 minutes in Game 2.
For Indiana, what we saw at the end of Game 1 wasn't a new feat. Twice this postseason, the Pacers erased late leads on the road to stun their opponents. In both following games, we've seen the total go under.
I like the Thunder to even the series and do so in convincing fashion. They've been so dominant defensively all year. For 39 minutes on Thursday, they looked poised to have another strong performance. They'll make the adjustments needed to contain the Pacers' offense and head to Indianapolis with the series tied.
Pick: Thunder -11 (-108) & Pacers Team Total Under 108.5 Points (-115)